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Re: Whosetosay post# 40585

Friday, 12/06/2013 12:24:08 PM

Friday, December 06, 2013 12:24:08 PM

Post# of 80490

And we are left pacing in the waiting room for the FDA decisions.


But, to try for a more optimistic perspective, do remember that Ariad has other
assets, that will enter the valuation (113, "exciting" new molecule).

Right now there's a lot of pessimism and distress, and that blocks what would
be by now be a fairly good valuation for 113.

The way I see it, Ariad is currently two companies:

1. Development stage biotech with a very promising candidate in
clinical tests with strong positive indicators. There still the pipeline,
even if all but one drug is currently on the shelf.

2. A company with a drug in the market (in EU), and questions as to
the niche it will serve (in Eu/US), with the uncertainty hanging about
for months. Probability is very high that Iclusig will at the very least
have a place as the drug of last resort (a market that will by itself
justify a substantially higher pps). There's also the possibility that
the CV issues will be controlled, and this will increase Iclusig's value
substantially.

At this point the issues in 2. totally crush the promise of 1. This will change
as we get more information about 113 progress.
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