Natural gas's dashing of hopes for a recovery has become a cruel cliché at this point—and continuing increases in production despite low prices suggest 2014 will bring more of the same.
From an investment standpoint, one has to distinguish between North American NG prices and NG prices elsewhere in the world, including LNG. The two oil-and-gas-production stocks I own—HES and RDS-A—have a relatively small proportion of their overall boe/d tied to the Henry Hub benchmark price.
This year, wintry weather arrived early, with arctic air sweeping into the Midwest and Northeast—the two main regions that rely on gas for heating—before Thanksgiving. Heating degree days, a measure of demand that rises when temperatures are colder, reached their highest level for November since 2000…
…Supplies have been further stretched as the chill froze equipment in gas fields across Texas and other states, limiting production.
...natural-gas futures [on the New York Mercantile Exchange] rose 26% [in 2013], their biggest one-year rise since 2005 and the largest percentage gain for any commodity in 2013.
This was partly due to the weather; however, US NG prices also rose because several oil & gas companies redirected their funding of shale-gas projects to liquids-rich shales.