nrcmedia re fed & state govt...
you're concern is valid. And no one here knows for sure where the govt may fall. that lack of certainty is why I myself dont discount your point.
that of course is all part of the risk & speculation
ultimately though, the govt must bend to the will of the people. It can be suspended or stalled for a period of time, but history bears out, eventually the will of the people pushes the govt meter.
so consider a couple of macro trends:
- the last generation to draw a line in the sand against pot in over tilting #'s were the ww2 & korean war generation. Their #'s now are dwarfed by the baby boomers. the same generation who pushed pot into the mainstream as far back as the late '60's. Every generation past the boomers as been libetarian leaning on pot, even when not using it themselves. That is a tough tide to fight by this point.
- on the FED level, the pres is in his 2nd term. the courts, congress & regulators also lean democratic. the democrats have always been softer on crime & when it comes to pot the pres is at the lowest age range of the boomers. he not only plays to their sensibilities but like the younger generations (x,y millenials) he has never taken a strong line in the sand with it.
- economically, many states are strapped. pot makes economic sense & is one of the reasons republicans havent attacked it. the fed also knows if the tide turns state by state, they too will profit bigtime from federal interstate commerce. the fed raids you reference may be more about that, to let states know ultimately the feds will set the score in re to how this gets taxed.
- finally, if the econ continues to tank or popularity #'s go down more w/ the dems, they can both appease & distract the masses w/ legal pot.
again, nrcmedia, imo your point has validity & must be weighed. & i'll grant your side of the arguement, that at least in the near term, the left on the federal level, may even lurch right, just to appear tough or play to the conservative base to help try to stabalize their falling #'s. But again the will of the collective mindset of the people is pushing the position to legalization. that is a tough inertia to fight if one wants longer term political sustainability.