MMT in 2014
If you read the press release they pumped 16,000 bopd for a few days in October. Not hard to imagine that at 18,000 bopd if they were allowed to sustain that rate. Add in 3000-4000 bopd for Umu-11 and it is pretty safe to say 20,000 bopd would be attainable upon Umu-11 completion in a few weeks.
Add in water disposal well, Umu-8 horizontal, completion of Umu-10 and either a Umu-East step-out or another horizontal and it is easy to see 30,000 bopd by the end of 2014.
When Umugini is completed Mart will be a cash machine again like in 2012. Market might need to see what a full quarter of Umugini cash flows look like on an after-tax basis with new tax regime in 2014, but I find it hard to believe we won't double from here in 2014.
I am personally keeping a big cash warchest to see what market does in December tax loss selling. I don't think we'll get a big selloff, especially with CEN.TO money needing somewhere to park. I think the divvy will be announced in early December too and that a cut is priced in.
The combination of the ability to overlift (nominate oil and get paid before delivered to pipeline), cost recovery (capex spent in last quarter is recovered in next quarter in revenue i.e. cash flow from operations) mean that as long as Mart's balance sheet isn't out of control it can cover the dividend through cash flow from operations. CFOps before working capital changes has been $51M year-to-date vs. $52M in dividends paid. As long as management is confident in getting to 30,000 bopd by end of 2014 there is no way they would cut the dividend IMO. There is also the $50M in credit facility room as a backstop not factored into above.
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