The problems with XXII are the number of warrants/new shares, the Sabby overhang and "failure to act" by the regulatory authorities on all fronts.
You dont know how many shares will potentially will be out there, nor do you know where Sabby is in liquidation. Surely the past week has not been a banner week for volume.
XXII head winds...regulatory authorities play "passive-aggressively" and fail to act indefinitely...as they have done for the past 9 months...
That is the MO of the Obama administration when it comes to Regulatory Agencies when they dont want to grant approval ... by not acting they have achieved the goal of "denial" without an appeal available to reverse the decision.
So SPIHF could still be the cheaper of the two, especially considering immediate potential.
My guess...Obama Administration will stay the course and not grant approval on anything to do with smoking...as it would be perceived as pro-smoking, regardless of the perceived benefits. One exception, perhaps seeing approval as a cessation aid (Pfizer). But how long would that take? My guess...next year sometime, if it happens.
We see the "passive-aggressive" (decision making) in nat gas and oil exploration permits, we see it in Keystone pipeline...etc,and other permit applications.
On the flip side is BP as the white night, outside of the U.S. ...but that might not be until next year...
Believe SPIHF is still cheaper and bigger...
disclosure: holding DSNY, SPIHF and XXII
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