With the Abbott government pinning all its hopes on its 'direct action' scheme to meet its stated commitment to a 5 per cent emissions reduction by 2020, it is worth exploring the past failures and lessons arising from direct action approaches.
Because Australia has ratified the Kyoto Protocol, a failure by the government on direct action would not only be failure for the Australian people, but a national failure as well as a failure to meet our international emissions reduction commitments.
To put direct action in context, it is important to examine past approaches to direct action in Australia and internationally, and lessons from that experience.
When John Howard was negotiating the GST package with the Democrats in 1998, the Democrats were pushing action on climate change as the quid pro quo for their support for the GST. At the time I was one of the senior government officials involved in negotiating the fine details of elements of this package between then-senators Robert Hill and Lyn Allison. One of these “fine details” was the $400 million Greenhouse Gas Abatement Program, aka “direct action”.
Six lessons
In providing advice to the Democrats and the Howard government on the greenhouse gas abatement program, we took every effort to ensure that the program would lead to additional abatement and not just support activities that were going to happen anyway. The importance of this cannot be understated. This is the first essential aspect of any direct action scheme worth the name:
1. Measurable and additional abatement
The challenge with the GGAP, and with any direct action approach, is to ensure that funding for projects is made for abatement that is measurable, as well as environmentally and financially additional: that is, that it would not have occurred in the absence of government funding. Many direct action GGAP projects were proposed, and many were not supported because they failed to meet this 'additionality' test. Once projects were approved through this rigorous process, more still failed because they could not produce the stated abatement objectives.
2. Payment on delivery, not on promise
With GGAP, payment was only made on abatement outcomes, and abatement outcomes were very rarely achieved, so much of the allocated funding ended going back to consolidated revenue. As a consequence, the GGAP never fulfilled its objectives and was massively underspent – only a portion of the $400 million allocated to the program was spent.
3. Independent, expert verification
It is essential that extremely robust methodologies are developed, accredited, and utilised with any direct action approach. This requires independent expert input. The Kyoto Mechanisms – the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation – demand such rigour and so should any direct action approach in Australia. With the CDM and JI, the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) has an independent methodological panel that accredits and approves the methodologies provided by project proponents. Any direct action scheme applied in Australia requires an independent panel of experts across all abatement methodologies and projects to be at all credible.
4. Credibility requires international consistency and must lead to permanent abatement
Having said all that, it has to be clear from the outset that direct action projects must use methodologies that are agreed internationally, otherwise they won't contribute to our international commitments under the UNFCCC or the Kyoto Protocol. On this point it should be noted the stated reliance of the new government on soil carbon but that methodologies are still being developed and agreed internationally.
For projects to meet our international commitments, they also have to deliver abatement that is permanent. In the case of soil carbon, it is problematic because one drought event can remove any soil carbon that may have been built over the previous decade.
5. Action does not happen overnight
The government's commitment is a 5 per cent reduction in emissions by 2020 – only seven years away. With the GGAP, it took months to establish the program and guidelines, more months to approve methodologies then more still to determine which projects met the strict program criteria. Projects then took months to get off the ground, and a few years into the program, very little abatement had actually occurred. This was also the experience with the CDM and JI internationally: 24 months after kick-off, around only 20 abatement methodologies had been approved by the CDM methodologies panel. It takes years for abatement to occur after projects commence. With tree planting, it takes up to 10 years to start getting any significant abatement. Infrastructure projects take several years to be planned, approved, then built.
6. Direct action needs real and meaningful outcomes
For a direct action scheme to result in meaningful climate action, it needs to position Australia to be a leading zero emissions economy.
Effective climate action is easy to spot. It will see more renewable energy plants built, more zero emissions buildings, more electric vehicles, more high speed rail, more land use change that reduces emissions and fewer coal-fired power stations. Not just investment in the status quo.
Many will be aware of how much Australia is slipping behind other leading economies in investment in green tech. Australia can use direct action to catch up. The United States has just finished the largest solar thermal plant in the world. India is building the largest solar PV power plant. What is Australia doing in this space?
Effective climate action will see us going forwards well beyond 5 per cent emissions reduction by 2020. Direct action must reposition Australia to move beyond zero emissions for the 21st and 22nd centuries.
Dr Stephen Bygrave is the chief executive of climate solutions think-tank, Beyond Zero Emissions .. http://bze.org.au/. He has worked on climate change nationally and internationally for the past 20 years.
A climate scientist says farmers need more help to adapt to heatwaves.
The head of the Centre of Excellence for Climate Science at the University of NSW, Professor Andy Pitman, says climate change is driving up temperatures much faster than was predicted.
He says scientists might have been too conservative about how fast the climate is changing, because the heatwaves appear to be hotter and are lasting longer.
"I think that tends to mean the adaptation responses are lagging much too slow," he said.
"We thought that, by talking about changes by 2050 or 2100, people thought they had time, but what the climate scientists are now discovering is we underestimated the capacity of nature to change dramatically quickly."
The comments spring from debate on social media, after a Darwin columnist Bob Gosford posted a piece on Crikey that called western Queensland graziers "bone collectors and rent seekers".
He wrote: "If the arid-zone country of western Queensland cannot sustain grazing activity from year to year, through drought and good seasons both, then it seems environmentally foolhardy and financially irresponsible to keep flogging a dead horse."
But grazier John Bethel says the drought was exacerbated by the Federal Government decision two years ago. He has cattle on Huonfels Station, Georgetown, inland from Cairns, in the Gulf Country.
"If governments had got out of the way, not made stupid decisions like the live export ban, we wouldn't be in this situation. Because of the glut of cattle Australia-wide, the beef industry's collapsed."
Putting aside the variable, which was the suspension of live cattle exports to Indonesia, most of western Queensland has experienced low rainfall during the warmest year on record.
"We certainly are seeing a build-up of heat over the Australian continent over spring and summer, leading to large-scale heatwave conditions, which are, as far as we know over 150 of historical records, unprecedented," said Professor Pitman.
"Rainfall is harder to link to global warming. There has been sea surface temperature warming, which has driven quite high rainfall along the coastal strip of Queensland, but further inland they've been surprisingly dry, given the long double-dip La Nina, and they've been in neutral conditions more recently.
Professor Pitman says the more complex picture is soil moisture.
"The warm temperatures through multiple seasons have enabled quite a lot of vegetation that would otherwise have died back or reduced during winter to carry on transpiring through cooler periods.
"That tends to strip moisture out of the soil, evaporate it into the atmosphere.
"So when we move into a growing season, the soil moisture anomalies tends to be a lot drier than would otherwise have been."
The challenge for Queensland graziers is coping with the years between poor seasons.
"I don't know about a long term trend," said grazier John Bethel.
"2002-3 were really bad. It goes in 11-year cycles. We were due for a bad year.
"Looking at the cycles; the 80s were dry, the 70s were wet, 60s were dry, the 50s were really wet. I don't think there's anything unique about it."
But climate scientists emphasise that what has changed is the hotter temperatures.
"We certainly have had some periods of dry before. We haven't seen the periods of heat!" said Professor Pitman.
"If someone doesn't think four degrees' warming doesn't sound very much, they're misunderstanding how the climate works.
"Four degrees, on the global mean, might be six degrees on the mean/average over Australia, which might be seven to eight degrees on the maximum temperatures.
"So if you're used to 33-34 degrees, adding seven or eight degrees to that, it adds immense stress to agricultural systems. You can't just ignore it."
Ann and Ric Britton graze cattle on three properties 300 kilometres south of Mt Isa in north-west Queensland. The Brittons' adaptations are to rainfall, and Ann Britton is not thinking in terms of climate change.
But they're giving it until April before they get rid of the rest of their cattle.
"We've got our breeder stock 2,000-3,000 head of cows. If we have to sell them, that's years and years of genetics - better than them dying in the paddock.
"The average is one really good season in ten, but while it had rained for three years in a row, in 2012-13 the heatwave over weeks and weeks burnt the grass, turned it into powder and blew it away."
CSIRO report says Australia getting hotter with more to come
David Mark reported this story on Tuesday, March 4, 2014 18:30:00
MARK COLVIN: The two top authorities on Australia's climate say it's clear - the continent is getting warmer. The CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology published the latest State of the Climate report today.
Australia is experiencing more extreme heat and longer fire seasons because of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The report confirms that temperatures in Australia have risen almost one degree over the past 100 years.
What's more, temperatures are expected to continue rising by up to one and a half degrees in the next 16 years alone and by more over the longer term.
David Mark reports.
DAVID MARK: The clear language in the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology State of the Climate 2014 report is at odds with the political debate about climate change in Australia; it's unequivocal.
PENNY WETTON: It's very clear that the global climate system is warming and that Australia also is experiencing that warming that we're seeing globally.
DAVID MARK: Dr Penny Wetton is a climate scientist at the CSIRO and one of the author's of the report.
PENNY WETTON: The fact that there's been an overall increase is starting to stand out quite strongly compared to those ups and downs you get from year to year.
DAVID MARK: The report says temperatures in Australia have risen by 0.9 of a degree since 1910. Seven of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred in the past 16 years. Extreme fire weather has increased as has the length of the fire season.
Average rainfall has increased, but rainfall has decreased by at least 15 per cent recently in the south of the country in autumn and winter.
And the report makes it clear why these changes are happening.
PENNY WETTON: The predominant cause of that increase in temperature, particularly since the middle of last century, has been increases in greenhouse gases.
Alternative causes for that do not have the capability to explain that increase in temperature. Australia is showing a very similar pattern of warming to what we see globally.
DAVID MARK: As Dr Wetton alluded to, the rise in temperatures has been accelerating, and that pattern will continue.
PENNY WETTON: We're looking at a further warming of perhaps about 0.5-1.5 degrees by 2030, compared to late last century. And if you look at later in the century, the warming could be 1-2.5 degrees by 2070 if we follow a fairly low pathway with our emissions globally of greenhouse gases.
But, if in fact we follow a higher pathway with our greenhouse gas emissions, the warming could be around 2-5 degrees.
It would be an extraordinary change. Take for example, a temperature change of about 3 degrees is about the difference between say a Melbourne and Sydney climate. So, you know, five degrees is quite a significant warming.
If you think about inland areas of Australia where we get very hot days now of perhaps 46, 47 degrees, you know it's going to push those hot days well over 50 degrees.
[my emphasis]
DAVID MARK: That will mean more extreme fire weather days - up to 300 per cent more by 2050 compared to the climate in the last decades of last century.
Sea levels are projected to rise by a third to one metre, depending on emissions. And droughts will become more frequent and severe - particularly in southern Australia.
PENNY WETTON: Well firstly, what we see in Australia when it comes to projecting future changes in rainfall is quite a clear pattern of decreasing rainfall across southern areas of the continent - mainly the areas that get most of their rainfall in the winter, because what we see is a projected decline in winter rainfall.
And so that includes south west Western Australia, across southern South Australia into parts of south-eastern Australia.
Away from that region, when we look at say northern Australia particularly, and summer rainfall more generally, we are not getting such a consistent message from our global climate models and various lines of evidence. There is a possibility of significant changes in rainfall, but we can't be so confident about the direction of change.
But in that southern area, we can be confident about the direction of change, and it's a decrease.
DAVID MARK: There was a time in Australia when the release of the State of the Climate Report and its predictions of increasing extreme weather, bushfires and droughts, might have sparked a political debate - particularly given the divide between the major parties over the price on carbon.
It seems those days are over. Labor did not raise the report in Question Time today.
The Greens Leader, Senator Christine Milne, did buy in on her way into the Parliament this morning.
CHRISTINE MILNE: The task in Australia is enormous. We have to not only turn things around, but start pulling those emissions right down, and you're not going to do it with a target of 5 per cent and you're certainly not going to do it with Direct Action.
The science is there, the reality for the farmers is there. South-eastern Australia is drying out; it is time we maintained the legislation we've got.
MARK COLVIN: The Greens Leader, Senator Christine Milne, ending David Mark's report.
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5 Mar 2014 Last updated 12:18 EST
CSIRO/BOM report provides a clearer picture of Australia's climate change
04 Mar 2014
A definitive report on observed changes in long-term trends in Australia’s climate has been released by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.
Bureau chief executive Dr Rob Vertessy said temperatures across Australia were, on average, almost 1°C warmer than they were a century ago, with most of the warming having occurred since 1950.
“Australia’s mean temperature has warmed by 0.9°C since 1910,” Dr Vertessy said.
“Seven of the ten warmest years on record in Australia have occurred since 1998. When we compare the past 15 years to the period 1951 to1980, we find that the frequency of very warm months has increased five-fold and the frequency of very cool months has decreased by around a third.
The duration, frequency and intensity of heatwaves had increased across large parts of Australia since 1950. Extreme fire weather risk had increased, and the fire season lengthened across large parts of Australia since the 1970s.
“We have also seen a general trend of declining autumn and winter rainfall, particularly in south-western and south-eastern Australia, while heavy rainfall events are projected to increase. Australian average annual rainfall has increased slightly, largely due to increases in spring and summer rainfall, most markedly in northwestern Australia,” Dr Vertessy said.
CSIRO chief executive Dr Megan Clark said Australia had warmed in every state and territory and in every season.
“Australia has one of the most variable climates in the world. Against this backdrop, across the decades, we’re continuing to see increasing temperatures, warmer oceans, changes to when and where rain falls and higher sea levels,” Dr Clark said.
“The sea-surface temperatures have warmed by 0.9°C since 1900 and greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise.”
Key findings: Temperature
* Australia’s mean surface air temperature has warmed by 0.9°C since 1910. * Seven of the ten warmest years on record have occurred since 1998. * Over the past 15 years, the frequency of very warm months has increased five-fold and the frequency of very cool months has declined by around a third, compared to 1951-1980. * Sea-surface temperatures in the Australian region have warmed by 0.9°C since 1900.
Key findings: Rainfall
* Rainfall averaged across Australia has slightly increased since 1900, with a large increase in northwest Australia since 1970. * A declining trend in winter rainfall persists in southwest Australia. * Autumn and early winter rainfall has mostly been below average in the southeast since 1990.
Key findings: Heatwaves and fire weather
* The duration, frequency and intensity of heatwaves have increased across large parts of Australia since 1950. * There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a longer fire season, across large parts of Australia since the 1970s.
Key findings: Global atmosphere and cryosphere
* A wide range of observations show that the global climate system continues to warm. * It is extremely likely that the dominant cause of recent warming is human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and not natural climate variability. * Ice-mass loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets has accelerated over the past two decades. * Arctic summer minimum seaice extent has declined by between 9.4 and 13.6 percent per decade since 1979, a rate that is likely unprecedented in at least the past 1450 years. * Antarctic sea-ice extent has slightly increased by between 1.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent per decade since 1979.
Key findings: Greenhouse gases
* Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase due to emissions from human activities, with global mean CO2 levels reaching 395 ppm in 2013. * Global CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuel increased in 2013 by 2.1pc compared to 3.1pc per year since 2000. * The increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations from 2011 to 2013 is the largest two-year increase ever observed.
Future climate scenarios for Australia
* Australian temperatures are projected to continue to increase, with more hot days and fewer cool days. * A further increase in the number of extreme fire-weather days is expected in southern and eastern Australia, with a longer fire season in these regions. * Average rainfall in southern Australia is projected to decrease, with a likely increase in drought frequency and severity. * The frequency and intensity of extreme daily rainfall is projected to increase. * Tropical cyclones are projected to decrease in number but increase in intensity. Projected sea-level rise will increase the frequency of extreme sea-level events.
The State of the Climate 2014 report is the third report in a series and follows earlier reports in 2010 and 2012. To download the full report, click here. http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/
Stark figures but no surprises in updated climate change predictions from CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology
Anna Vidot, Tuesday January 27, 2015 - 16:05 EDT
Paddocks in drought near Dubbo, NSW. The CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology's updated climate change projections point to warmer and drier average conditions across southern Australian agricultural regions into the future. - ABC
The CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology say updated climate change predictions confirm what they've been saying for years.
The agencies' show Australia is on track for increasingly extreme weather as the climate is affected by greenhouse gas emissions.
Researchers say climate science and modelling has become more sophisticated and detailed since the agencies released their last joint climate change projection study in 2007.
Senior CSIRO research scientist Kevin Hennessy said the data brought together for the 2015 update provided no surprises.
"These new projections are consistent with what we said back in 2007," he said.
"One of the key findings is that a warmer climate there'll be more extremely high temperatures and fewer colder temperatures.
That warming is expected to be more pronounced in inland areas, which miss out on the buffer provided by the oceans.
Mr Hennessy said Dubbo, in central west New South Wales, currently records about 22 days above 35 [ 95F ] degrees each year.
"By the year 2030 that could increase to between 26 and 37. If we go out to the end of the century, that could be around 49 to 85 days per year if we follow high emissions," he said.
The report also confirms earlier projections that rainfall over southern Australia, with the exception of Tasmania, will decrease.
Mr Hennessy said the amount of evidence pointing to decreasing rainfall from Perth to southern NSW was 'very clear'.
"In south-west Western Australia, where there's already been a warming and a drying, more of that is likely to occur in the future, particularly in winter and spring, where we can see projected [rainfall] decreases by the end of the century of up to 45 per cent of all," he said.
But both the 'direction and magnitude of change' to rainfall patterns across the Top End remained unclear.
"Some models suggest an increase in rainfall, some models suggest a decrease," Mr Hennessy said.
"We have low confidence in northern Australian rainfall change, because some of the models still grapple with some of the important rainfall-forming processes."
That included uncertainty around the impact of tropical cyclone activity on northern rainfall.
The CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology report found that the number of tropical cyclones was set to decrease, but cyclones that did form were likely to be more intense.
Meanwhile, the CSIRO's Dr Wenju Cai published research in the journal Nature Climate Change this week, showing climate models indicated an increase in the frequency of extreme La Nina events.
He earlier published research pointing to an increase in extreme El Nino events.
La Nina typically brings cooler and wetter conditions to eastern Australia, including flooding. El Nino typically results in hotter and drier conditions in the east, including drought.
Mr Hennessy said the interaction between changes in average climate, and increasing frequency of extreme events, showed Australia needs to work out how it is going to prepare for and manage its climate into the future.
"These new projections provide an evidence base for an assessment of potential impacts and what we need to do to reduce emissions, so we can slow global warming, and, secondly, adapt and try to manage these changes as they occur," he said.
"One of the clear messages from this report is, in addition to warmer conditions with some drying in southern Australia, there's also going to be an increase in extreme daily rainfall intensity.
"That, combined with increased evaporation, provides all sorts of different implications for agriculture.
"You might consider new crop varieties, more efficient irrigation, more flexible farm management and different types of food storage and preservation, early warning systems, so farmers can prepare well in advance, and better emergency response and recovery so we can deal with these events as they occur."
Mr Hennessy said the data suggested that at least a 2-degree increase in global average temperatures was unavoidable at this point, and farmers and water managers would have to adapt accordingly.
"Beyond that, what we do to reduce emissions in the next couple of decades really matters," he said.
"If we can change to a path that is relatively low emissions, we will avoid some of the worst impacts.
"If on the other hand we don't do much to reduce emissions, we're looking at a warming of up to 5 degrees in Australia, with significant implications."
More money for emergency water for New South Wales farmers now includes de-silting dams
Sally Bryant, Monday January 12, 2015 - 14:12 EDT
The NSW Government has announced an additional $20 million of Emergency Water Infrastructure Rebates for farmers in a 1 in 50 year drought, including funds to desilt dams. - ABC
Drought-affected farmers are now eligible for a government rebate, to remove silt from dry dams, as well as other emergency water infrastructure works.
The New South Wales Government has announced an additional $20 million under the Emergency Water Infrastructure Rebate scheme for drought-affected landholders to provide farm water if they are in a one in 50 year drought.
Member for Dubbo, Leader of the NSW Nationals and acting Premier Troy Grant, has inspected the situation on-ground at Walgett in the north west, he says the situation in that part of the state is critical.
Mr Grant said the last round of Emergency Water Infrastructure Rebate funding was fully subscribed, and is confident this new funding will be welcomed by farmers.
"Farmers can start the application process for this process straight away," he said.
"To be eligible, they must be in a one in 50 year drought.
"The funds are a rebate to be paid on a dollar for dollar basis for emergency water infrastructure, and for the first time they include de-silting dry dams."
Mr Grant said the other key change to the funding is that farmers will be assessed on an individual or farm basis rather than on an Local Government Area eligibility.
He says the rebate scheme will close on June 30th.
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