I think the problem is there is a wide range of sales estimates, even for 2013 originally consensus was near 100 million and now it's half that. One of the easy ways to picks stocks is when you have analysts sales revisions upward by a good % the stock is going to go up and one way to find stocks to sell is find analysts estimates that regularly go down a good %.
If they GIA on Anchor WS is going to believe they will fail to get good sales in 2014 so the stock will not gain based on 1 billion peak sales or anything close. Consensus will be 200-300 which at biotech multiples is about where we are now. The stock will not go up until they announce 2014 Q #'s and prove they can sell the drug without a partner, simple as that.
That biotech's can have a market cap related to future sales estimates is true but AMRN is not going to be based on any future sales since WS believes no partner equals low sales until AMRN prove otherwise.
I find it extremely telling that the one analysts that gives sales figures with or without a partner gives a 100% increase in sales with a BP partner.
If they partner correctly stock goes to 15 within a few months of partner deal and is sold to partner for 25-30 within 12 months
They don't partner and we will not see above 10 until second half 2014 and we will only see it then if sales are good, otherwise we could see more dilution and a wait until sales start exceeding WS #'s or Reduce It to see 25-30.
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