Replies to post #32857 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[ariadndndough]

From jpm mike king

Ariad beats consensus estimates, recording 2Q13 Iclusig sales of $13.9MM; reiterating Market Outperform rating and $32 price target based on DCF and sum-of-the-parts valuation methodologies. 2Q13 Iclusig sales were greater than the consensus estimate of $11MM, albeit lower than our estimate of $15.3MM. Deferred revenues included $3.4MM in the U.S. and $2.4MM in connection with the French ATU program. Ariad reported 2Q13 EPS slightly higher than our and consensus estimates, based on lower R&D spend and higher than expected share count, and finished the quarter with $352MM in cash, equivalents, and marketable securities. 2Q13 financial results versus JMP and consensus estimates are summarized below. As highlighted on the conference call with management, Iclusig realized a greater proportion of new starts among patients failing one prior TKI and chronic phase patients. Development timelines for Iclusig in the front-line setting (Phase III EPIC trial), Japanese expansion, GIST, and other indications remain unchanged. Regarding ‘113, Ariad reiterated plans to initiate a pivotal second-line ALK+ NSCLC trial during late 3Q13, with a final go/no-go decision in EGFRT790M patients to follow clinical updates at ESMO (September) and the World Lung Meeting (October). With our overall investment thesis intact, we continue to view ARIA shares as appreciably undervalued on the basis of Iclusig alone, also seeing little value currently being ascribed to ’113, which offers compelling potential in ALK+ NSCLC.

[rumrunner528]

At first glance revenues from France (quarter over quarter) seem rather disappointing. (2.1 to 2.4, 14% increase). Any thoughts?

rum

[Jesspro]

A very detailed prognostication Barry. Thanks for your post. Would you say give or take $5M from your $100M target for 2013? It seems 2014 would bode well for LeCluse since we'll get some EPIC data this coming ASH and at the same time the other countries in the European Union will open up to this drug in the coming year. Factor this with the prospect of Japan, Canada, Australia, maybe South Korea(being a new established powerhouse in Asia), South America and the rest of the world, ARIAD will have its hands full. How could the big funds ignore this? And just for one indication.