2013 Icliusig Sales Projections:
At the start of 2013, the analyst's sales projections for Iclusig, ranged from a low of 27 Million Dollars by Merrill Lynch (Rachel) to Mike Kings high of, I believe, 70 Million Dollars, with most of the analysts in the 40 to 50 Million Dollar range (including Harvey at 50 Million Dollars)
Based upon my following calculations, we should end 2013 with over 100 Million Dollars in Iclusig sales, calculated as follows:
Actual 1st Quarter sales were 8.5 Million Dollars (6.4 in the US and 2.1 in France).
Actual 2nd Quarter sales were 16.3 Million Dollars (13.9 in the US and 2.4 in France). 2nd Quarter sales actually increased by 7.8 Milliom Dollars Quarter to Quarter, or the equivalent of a 91.76% increase, Quarter to Quarter ( 7.8 Million increase divided by the 8.5 Million in 1st Quarter sales.
In the 3rd Quarter, we just learned this morning that today Ariad starts selling Iclusig in the UK, Germany and Austria. That means that for 60% of the 3rd Quarter (55 out of the 92 days in the quarter), and based on the 2.4 Million in sales to France in the 2nd Quarter and assuming that each of the three countries produce the same amount of sales per Quarter as does France, Ariad should sell about 4.3 Million Dollars of Iclusig to these three countries in the 3rd Quarter (2.4 (Sales in France) x 3 x 60%). Actually the sales should even be a bit higher due to the higher price that Germany will pay ($7,800 per patient per month). Even using 4.3 and adding another 2.4 for France in the 3rd Quarter, we come up with a projected 6.7 Million Dollars of Euro sales in the 3rd Quarter. The US sales increasd from 6.4 Million to 13.9 from the 1st Quarter to the 2nd Quarter, or an increase of 117% Quarter to Quarter. Given the company's quidance of a slower uptake of new patients in the 2nd Half of the year, lets use only 80% as the projected us sales increase for the 3rd Quarter over the 2nd Quarter. If we use 80%, we project us sales of 25 Million Dollars for this upcoming 3rd Quarter (13.9 Million times 1.80). Making the total projected Iclusig sales for the 3rd Quarter of 32.7 Million Dollars (6.7 in Europe and 25.0 in the US.
I am projecting an increase of about 65% for the 4th Quarter (again keeping in mind the slower uptake guidance by the company) and I come up with 4th Quarter sales of 54 Million Dollars (32.7 (3rd Quarter sales) times 1.65)
My projection for total Iclusig sales for 2013 is therefore as follows:
1st Quarter (actual) 8.5
2nd Quarter (actual) 16.3
3rd Quarter (projected) 32.7
4th Quarter (projected) 54.0
For a total of 111.5 Million Dollars of Iclisig sales for 2013
JMHO,
Barry
