Ahh, I love disagreements with people who present well reasoned arguments!
I agree and disagree with you. Agree, in the sense that the movement we saw on Friday (and hopefully positive on Monday) is WAY more than the market simply responding to a relatively low monetary figure that results from HJJ's latest ruling, i.e. the market is expecting a future ruling from HJJ to be positive as well. Disagree, in the sense that the market did NOT move UNTIL HJJ's ruling posted on Friday. I still see HJJ's RR ruling as a binary outcome event that will move the market hugely, much more than the speculation/pps movement up to the ruling. In this way, it is no different than a biotech awaiting FDA approval or denial. Lots of pps movement and positioning, followed by large movement at time of ruling.
I'm not sure that we actually disagree too much here, XLT. May be more a matter of semantics... "Repositioning" or "reevaluating" after ruling IS going to be a pps moving event IMO.
best,
arp
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