Good points. I think, however, we have seen how overheated expectations can obscure the genuine improvements in IDCC's financials. It would be unfortunate if IDCC's 3G progress suffers the same fate. Besides, I don't think we have a market that is willing to pay much of a premium for stories or futures. Right now, there is still considerable skepticism about the adoption rate of 3G outside Japan.
In 2000 the global wireless infrastructure market was around $50B while the global handset market was around $50B. In 2002 the global wireless infrastructure market was less than $27B while the global handset market was around $68B. The rule of thumb is that 80% of global telecom infrastructure spending is generated by the top 50 carriers so the collapse of the global wireless infrastructure market from $50B in 2000 to only $27B in 2002 indicates that the top 50 wireless carriers continue to push out their 3G deployments. If I recall correctly, 3G spending in 2002 was less than $2.5B.
The point is not to totally discount IDCC's potential 3G income stream but to highlight the financial milestones that IDCC is perfectly capable of achieving in 2G alone since those financial milestones will drive the continued expansion of IDCC's institutional ownership base.
Right now, IDCC's addressable institutional ownership base includes small-cap and mid-cap funds. As its financial metrics become more consistent, particularly the recurring royalty income line, it will attract more institutional interest, including the indexes and index funds.
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