Replies to post #17871 on InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[postyle]

Once,

I think the reason most shareholders are upset when there is massive insider selling is because insider selling almost always has a positive correlation with declining share prices. Insider selling is typically the event that marks the turn-around of rising IDCC share prices for many months to come. Of course just because it has happened that way so predictably in the past doesn't mean this time will be the same but it's a correlation that's too predictable to ignore.

I will grant you that there has been an uncanny connection between the two -- as you have illustrated.

But it exists only in the short-term.

Look at last year's insider sales:

2002 Price Now Holds
12/02 Bolgiano, D. Ridgely, VP Sold (D) 28,622 shs. $18.75-$18.75 126,476 direct shares.
11/27 Goldberg, Howard E., PR Sold (D) 6,400 shs. $17.88-$17.90 45,485 direct shares.
11/27 Merritt, William J., EX VP Sold (D) 8,091 shs. $18.41-$18.70 26,262 direct shares.
11/27 Fagan, Richard J., CFO Sold (D) 11,820 shs. $19.01-$19.08 24,379 direct shares.
11/18 Briancon, Alain C., CTO Sold (D) 10,000 shs. $15.64-$15.80 4,788 direct shares.
11/18 Colson, Joseph S. Jr, DIR Sold (D) 11,000 shs. $15.50 27,275 direct shares.
10/16 Goldberg, Howard E., PR Sold (A)(D) 6,667 shs. $9.67 45,485 direct shares.
10/16 Bolgiano, D. Ridgely, VP Sold (A)(D) 3,195 shs. $9.67 123,848 direct shares.
10/16 Lemmo, Mark A., EX VP Sold (A)(D) 4,667 shs. $9.67 36,480 direct shares.
10/16 Kiernan, Brian G., OFF Sold (A)(D) 4,334 shs. $9.67 44,745 direct shares.
10/16 Merritt, William J., EX VP Sold (A)(D) 5,000 shs. $9.67 34,353 direct shares.
10/16 Fagan, Richard J., CFO Sold (A)(D) 5,000 shs. $9.67 24,379 direct shares.
10/16 Tilden, Charles R., COO Sold (A)(D) 5,278 shs. $9.67 29,788 direct shares.
06/04 Campagna, Harry G., CB Sold (A)(D) 40,000 shs. $10.88-$11.55 290,000 direct shares.

Every one of last year's sales was at a price per share that is lower than today's closing.

I won't post the trades, but every one of the 2001 insider sales was at a price per share that is 1/2 to 1/3 lower than today's closing price for IDCC.

Obviously, there were some nice profits taken in late '99/early '00 -- but I think the point has been made.

[blueskywaves]

I think the reason most shareholders are upset when there is massive insider selling is because insider selling almost always has a positive correlation with declining share prices.


This is a dumb point. The research has consistently shown that insider selling is just too unreliable to be used as an indicator of future stock performance.

Compare and contrast, for example, the insider selling in IDCC before AND after the settlement. How do you explain that? Heck, go back even further. IDCC was the best performing wireless stock in 2001 and 2002 despite the fact that there was more insider selling than insider buying.

IDCC started 2001 with a stock price of $5.38 and ended 2001 with a stock price of $9.70. That's a gain of 80% despite the insider selling!

IDCC started 2002 with a stock price of $9.92 and ended 2002 with a stock price of $14.56. That's a gain of 47% despite the insider selling!

IDCC started 2003 with a stock price $15.70 and......

Notice something? I just demolished your premise with cold hard facts, again! Don't reply unless you can do the same.

LOL.