TAO.to/taoif - I had made this one of my largest positions after it dropped in January, and it was recovering nicely through the end of April. I bought it because I thought their Taranaki oil wells would justify the share price once they connected all the wells that had been behind pipe. They had been expecting about 5000 boepd. But when they finally reported production last week, at only 2700 boepd, more than half of it natural gas, I had to reconsider. I should have begun selling last week as soon as they announced the shortfall, but I waited, hoping for two things: an explanation for the dropoff in production, and some insider buying. Neither has materialized (except for company buying, which is not the same thing).
Last week after the PR, I sent an email to the company asking for more explanation, since the PR had given none. I didn't even get a reply. I have been selling for the past three days, and finally gave up today, getting out completely.
Their wells test at high flow rates, but the decline rates have been surprising. They must have some problems like wax buildup that they have been unsuccessful at treating. If they would explain what the problems are, and what they intend to do, I would probably have held on, but in the absence of any information I decided I should just take my loss and stay away. The price action also figured into my decision, with new lows day after day indicating that no one is eager to step up and buy in enough volume to stem the decline.
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