Bobwins the AECO averages are per gigajoule, not per 1000 cu feet. A Gigajoule is about 946 cu feet. So multiply the price per gigajoule by 1.057 to get the price per 1000 cu feet. I think the average price including December (given a lot more volume in December than November) will be almost 20 % higher than last quarter's average and almost all of that (except for royalties will go to the bottom line).
The simple average AECO price for July-Sept was $8.78, if we use $12 as December's average (currently 12.87) then the simple average for Oct through December will be $10.85 which is 23.5 % higher. Frankly I think the December average price will be well above the $12 used in this calculation. The average for just October and November is $10.28 and even that very conservative number is 17.1 % higher. I prefer the comparisons (% changes) with last quarter but if you want to figure the price per barrel (equivalent), then it would be $10.85 X 6 X 1.057 or $69 a barrel. Note: If the 69 is correct then the 66 for last quarter is not, prices have certainly risen more than $3 per boe (as demonstrated above). That's why I prefer to look at the % changes and then apply them to the cash flow and income calculations.
I also think that the 1100 is far too conservative given prior press releases but 1175 to 1200 might be in the ballpark.
Once again I really think his conservatism was really based on the fact that we had just come out of November when AECO prices averaged $8.79 or almost the same as the second quarter average. But October and December have been and will be great months. And yes costs are rising but offsetting that is the spreading of many costs across significantly higher production.
All in all I'd have to be way off in my projections for their share price not to be north of $3 in a couple of months.
By the way, we compared returns some months ago. That darn Canadian dollar keeps killing me but I'm now up 68 % (after all costs except income taxes) year to date.
Bobwins - The QIS Capital survey of Canadian oil and gas companies must have been the report that Rival was refering to (see post 30158 on main board). Both Rival and Expedition (also Grand Banks) have writeups as well. Looks like this report was just issued (market prices as of Dec 6). Looks good for our companies but they should all do even better in the next issue given increasing production this quarter.
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