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drrc1949

04/24/13 12:06 PM

#4963 RE: Iamastockgenius #4962

Just out of curiosity, upon what metric are you relying when you make the statement "our cashflow sucks"? Can you share the source of your wisdom with the rest of us?

dealnay

04/24/13 12:45 PM

#4965 RE: Iamastockgenius #4962

Here is a link to a spreadsheet I created to estimate sales.

There are a few scenarios (ie., 2013 5% scrip growth & 18% under reporting, 2014 1% script growth, etc) that you can play with. You can just copy and past the numbers. Someone gave me some crude estimates on expenses I put in one of the sheets too. Crunching the numbers gives a good feel. The company should become self sustaining next year. I am not sure where all the bearishness is coming from unless we can't average 5% weekly script growth this year. I also used a under reported rate for scripts of 18% which is extremely low for a new drug launch. That number is usually much higher.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmTJU8mIVSebdGFUY253Y3BsTDBzbWRXSFVjbDZ0bHc#gid=6

homebuilder_watcher

04/25/13 12:28 PM

#5069 RE: Iamastockgenius #4962

Of course cash flow sucks now. Sales cant begin to cover costs now. That's not how we would do it. What is going on currently is irrelevant to a buyer. A buyer goes in to do due diligence with its investment banker and spends weeks doing a comprehensive model which would include a 7-10 year cash flow analysis. The cash flow looks a whole lot diferent in 5 years than it does now if you are selling $1 billion just on Marine or another $5 billion in Anchor in 5 years, doesn't it?