Replies to post #4929 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[isaeed]

Jesse, I agree with all you have said except one thing. Vascepa does have competition. There is the most obvious one i.e. Lovaza and the future generic versions of it and also supplements such as plusEPA, ArticEPA etc. In addition to these there are the statins and Niaspins etc. All of these currently hold some part of Vascepa's pie for MARINE. I am not comparing the efficacy / safety of Vascepa with them because we already know Vascepa is superior in lowering TGs from all of these but we cannot ignore the fact that it has fierce competition from all of these otherwise our sales would have been blockbuster from day 1. Vascepa is apparently struggling hard to capture this market. Its a tough road ahead and it is always a very tough time snatching existing market share from an incumbent. The 15% w/w increase is actually impressive at this stage (IMHO). The market however sees it differently and every positive news becomes a sale and get out opportunity like yesterday. Unbelieveable but thats the reality. Our time will come (at least I havent lost hope here yest although I have lost half of my investment in it).

From day 1 I was of the view that JZ will not sell to BP. We will go GIA and Anchor will happen. I am sticking to my view that 3-4 months prior to Anchor PDUFA (or any dilution for that matter) we will have either partnered or be acquired. JZ mentioned in previous calls that they will have news 6 months prior to PDUFA. I expect some news regarding this sometime in May-June timeframe. They simply do not have the funds to manage the Anchor indication. They will need to partner and for the partnership to solidify they need at least 4-5 months prior to the PDUFA date. Anchor will be launched immediately unlike Marine.

I am sticking to this view that this company and the product is worth at least 30$ per share which no BP was willing to offer prior to the sNDA acceptance. Things have changed. The only final roadblock is NCE / NME determination. Once this fog is lifted we will have clarity on the direction.

[ggwpq]

If amarin needs cash down the road it can pull a few levers :

1) sell worldwide rights of Vascepa ex-US, ex-Japan (probably worth the current market cap)
2) license Vascepa to Pfizer, AZN, Merck, Lily, etc for combo (each company pay just $250MM and you get the current market cap)
3) sell the company @ $15/sh if the Vascepa launch do not live up to expectation, ala HGSI.