Replies to post #59 on Rival Energy Ltd (fka rgylf)

[Bobwins]

One thing I have noticed is that Canadian companies don't appear to be benefitting as much from ngas prices. They appear to be getting less after the exchange than US counterparts. I will be watching Rival to see how it plays out in q4 since that's when the price spike should show up in the financials. Will be interesting to compare how Diaz and Sharon do, since their ngas revs are coming mostly from Texas. Obviously there could be an issue with btu content that is affecting the price but seems more pervasive than that. Maybe Canadian domestic markets are paying less than those crazy stupid Americanos.

Rival looks like the sure thing. Cze, Dzr and Shy haven't dropped the big numbers to the bottom line yet. I am hoping Xpd joins the group also. Looks similar to Shy in terms of rapid production increases. Supposed to end year at 500bpd from less than 200 at mid year. Bobwins

[SkepticalOptimist]

Yes, thanks Bobwins. I had done my own numbers because I wasn't sure if you were going to update for 4Q and I came out with a little more conservative CF per share at $.222 and same Net Income per share. Major differences was I think there will be lower production in 4Q given what was said by management about having only 1100 on as of late November and slightly higher share count, offset by lower operating costs because I assumed $8.30.

Anyway, a CF range of $.222 to $.285 at CF multiple of 5x is $4.44 to $5.70 Canadian, or approx. $3.80 to $4.85 US, which I think would we all be happy with. I think one of the reasons for the current low valuation is related to reserves, which Rival doesn't update quarterly. If Rival proves that reserves have been increasing with successful drilling, then I think we will get a more reasonable valuation. I don't consider this to be a high risk, because why would 2 high-level people come to a Junior like Rival and put in a lot of their own money if they weren't expecting growth in both production AND reserves.

Have a good weekend all.