Replies to post #3406 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Hspooner]

Not sure if 1406 includes the refills, I would tend to doubt it. In the past when I would see these reports they would be divided in to nrx and trx, but they would be seperate reports. Also IMS is just making an educated guess, there are a lot of none reporting pharmacies, including walmart and target, and there are others that report once per month.IMO the true script numbers are much higher

[sts66]

I know it's really early to be doing scrip charting like this, but below is the chart and some comments:

1. Total scrips/new scrip data is pretty linear so far, no acceleration visible.

2. The refill rate is climbing with what looks like a power function or exponentially, and the extrapolated refill rate trend curve I drew by hand (black dashed line) looks fine and dandy, but more on that below.

3. The plot of the rate of change of NRx's is pretty lumpy, but it's extrapolated linear trend line looks pretty gloomy for now.

4. The derivative of the NRx number (delta NRx) is the most important one to look at - if it's not rising over time the exponential hockey stick growth trend needed for blockbuster status won't occur - but like I said, it's really too early to be putting too much faith into what this chart shows so far:




I sure wish I wouldn't have made my last AMRN purchases last week, should have waited for a clear reversal, but didn't want to be caught out by a sudden NCE approval announcement either. Just have to be patient and wait for this current downtrend to play out - I have total faith in Vascepa, but their small sales force is really hurting them right now - it's not the product, it's the execution that's lacking so far - and until that situation changes we're going to be floundering, share price-wise.