I agree with you on most of what you are saying. it is always bs when they diluted shares as the stock goes up. Anyway, not sure if this validates the $15 target price, but maybe this analysis was before the dilution.
1. Selling that offering right after stunning P3 results was planned in advance, as they knew how good they were - you don't do a deal like that in 1 or 2 days - and JPM aren't chumps.
2. If you really believe a not as effective IV treatment will be preferred over a superior oral treatment by docs you have rocks in your head.