Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc fka KERX

[Er0ck]

Few things you need to understand here about KERX. So far the only website I could find that has listed Ladenburg Thalmann as having upgraded KERX to a 15.00 price target (completely laughable btw) is zolmax.com.... Thats a news site no ones heard of and is only has a staff of 6 people according to their own website....Hardly crediable....

I could not find a single other news site, much less credible news site that has any news on any type of price upgrades from Ladenburg Thalmann or any other company.

When I was researching this company last week before the "announcement" of the P3 results, I was begining to see the signs of a classic pump and dump. After what has transpired this week it's all but basically confirmed IMO. Besides the BS price target upgrade, you have the company coming out and announcing a big share dilution sell off as soon as the stocks pps went up on the news. On top of that, you have a CEO that has had a troubled history with a questionable back ground when it comes to running companies. You also have a new law suite in regards to how the handled things last year.

And last, but certainly not least, you have to look at what has happened so far. These guys didn't get a FDA approval, they simply had positive P3 results... Its going to be quite some time before they submit everything to the FDA and get any kind of ruling on their drug from them. On top of that you have to do some research as to what type of drug this is. While the results might have been good, that is hardly surprising considering there are already multiple drugs just like this out there right now on the market, and that they will be becoming generic very soon, meaning that they will be 1/10 the price of KERX's drug which means no doctor in there right mind is going to recommend KERX. The CEO knows this, and all they are trying to do is pump this and use the hype to sell off these shares so they can make a ton of money before the ship sinks.


And here is a post form SeakingAlpha that explains in detail what the problems are and how limited the market is for their drug posted on Wed Jan 30th. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/444306-walkthetalk/1503161-keryx-s-zenevex-with-very-limited-market-potential

"1) Some investors were over-excited by the, sort of un-expected, excellent clinical data in P3. Now the stock price popped up about 144% in three days, Wow. What goes up fast will goes down in the stock market once investors understand Zenerex very limited potential market."

"2) There are two types major phosphate binding compounds in market to compete with Zenerex: Calcium contained drugs (PHoslo) and non-calcium conatained drugs (Renagel/Renvola, and Fosrenol). All of them are similar effective to lower down serum phosphates."

"Calcium contained agents are the cheapest one,$1200 per patient per year. You may even use Tums, Calcium Carbonate, $99c per bottle, to lower down your serum phosphate. Although some patients may concern about its side effect: calcium deposit in blood vessel, majority of patients population will still use calcium contained agents. Revenue of Phoslo with about $80m in 2011 are dropping very year."

"3) Non-Calcium contained drugs will be direct competitors to Zenerex. Currently Renagel/Renvola were sold most for about $800m in 2011. However, its major patents will be expired in 2014. I don't think Zenerex can compete with Renagel/Renvola in terms of its similar efficacy and side effect. Renagel/Renvola will have much lower price and much stronger sales force from Sanofi in 2014."

"4) I agree that Zenerex has additional benefit for anemia over the others. However, iron therapy is not big issue for later stage renal dialysis patients. Now liquid iron can be easily IV delivered to patients during necessary dialysis process. So Zenerex doesn't have any game changer advantages."

"5) In term of dosage, it is still unknown if Keryx decides to use one dose per day or three dose per day for FDA approval. Forenol from Shire has been used once daily to lower serum phophorus level. On top of that,, Forenol can be used for the other more important implications opposed to Keryx's Zenerex only one implication: lower phosphate in blood."

"6) Sensipar, Fosrenol and Renagel/Renvela are Likely to be Negatively Impacted in 2014 When Oral Medications Become Included in the Dialysis Bundle, According to a Recent BioTrends Report. So will be Zenerex if it is FDA approval in 2014.
In summary, I don't think that Zenerex will be a game changer in lower phosphate drug market. Keryx stock price will eventually go down dramaticallly within one year in my humble opinion."


Once people actually figure out what the drug is, and how little impact it will have if its ever FDA approved, the pps will really go way down. Most likely even far below the $3 range it was at before this news comes out. Also factor in what the CEO is clearing doing here, and this is probably going to get very ugly very quick. Anyone in it should be careful IMO.