Replies to post #25896 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[jaybe]

Increasing Iclusig '13 rev. est. to $79M

Based on higher attrition of 400+ compassionate/expanded access/off label patients.

Here's how (yes I made a spreadsheet):

1Q $4.3M (approx. 300 new pts. for 1.5 mos. avg.)
2Q $13.7M (addl. 350 new pts. 1.5 mos. plus 1Q pts. for 3 addl. mos.)
3Q $24.5M (addl. 400 new pts. for 1.5 mos. plus 1-2Q pts. for addl. 3 mos.)
4Q $36.7M (addl. 450 new pts. for 1.5 mos. plus 1-3Q pts. for addl. 3 mos.)

Total $79M with 1500 pts. rolling into 2014.

Continue this pace of prior qtr. + 50 new pts. and YE '14 revenue will be $200M.

Note revs. for 1st qtr. are $4.3M....please adjust your expectations accordingly.

[micanwait]

Barry --

Can you explain how compassionate use actually works. I believe that during the initial trial period Ariad simply provides the drug.

What happens once the drug is approved? Do patients suddenly have to start paying? Will insurance automatically cover?

thanks..