Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[jaybe]

Increasing Iclusig '13 rev. est. to $79M

Based on higher attrition of 400+ compassionate/expanded access/off label patients.

Here's how (yes I made a spreadsheet):

1Q $4.3M (approx. 300 new pts. for 1.5 mos. avg.)
2Q $13.7M (addl. 350 new pts. 1.5 mos. plus 1Q pts. for 3 addl. mos.)
3Q $24.5M (addl. 400 new pts. for 1.5 mos. plus 1-2Q pts. for addl. 3 mos.)
4Q $36.7M (addl. 450 new pts. for 1.5 mos. plus 1-3Q pts. for addl. 3 mos.)

Total $79M with 1500 pts. rolling into 2014.

Continue this pace of prior qtr. + 50 new pts. and YE '14 revenue will be $200M.

Note revs. for 1st qtr. are $4.3M....please adjust your expectations accordingly.