porter,
If you see any errors in my data please let me know with specifics and give links to your sources. I try to be as accurate and unbiased as I can, but I do sometimes make silly errors and have brain farts. Historical data should probably come from government agencies, as I don't think anyone else has the resources to collect the data. As a general rule I trust the government agencies as they have thousands of people working for them and that would make it very difficult to cook the numbers.
In general I don't want data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the source of the chart I posted. They are a large agency but their main purpose is to work for the US Congress, and most of what they do is directed at making forecasts. History has shown that they are not very good at that. That's not necessarily their fault. Anyone who could be a great forecaster would probably be working somewhere else at a better job.
I don't trust most politicians as sources of data because most of them have selfish motives and small staffs that carry out their every wish. Many of the politicians also tend to not be well educated about economic processes (or anything else very technical, except for legal processes because way too many politicians are lawyers). I also don't trust political blogs and most newspapers.
Sheesh!!! ... I just checked the futures at 1:12AM PST. I think I'm very glad I'm very long the market.
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