Replies to post #154194 on Biotech Values

[iandy]

The notion that Iclusig won’t sell in the second-line setting at community onc centers is off-base,

I respectfully disagree.
While I know this black box is not comparable to the Tysabri black box, it is a black box nonetheless.
There will be warnings on every piece of promotional literature. Norvartis will probably emphasize the dangers in their marketing materials.

I am sure Ariad will be very prepared.
They said they will be spending the next week familiarizing their salesforce to the label.
Heck,Harvey said he would go to doctors offices himself.

I still think the box will effect initial uptake.

This stock was almost priced for perfection.
The broad label is great.
The warnings are a drag.

[NP1986]

The notion that Iclusig won’t sell in the second-line setting at community onc centers is off-base, IMO; if ARIA’s sales reps can’t sell Iclusig to these docs with the label they have, they should think about changing careers!

I think it will eventually sell, but that uptake is going to be slow. It would be a much easier sell without the safety warnings.

That said, there is a pretty sizeable proportion of patients for whom an effective treatment should trump any safety concerns. Even if oncologists don't agree that it is the best CML treatment out there, there are patients for whom it is likely to be the only effective option. I don't see much downside risk, although I think that there will be opportunities to pick up even cheaper shares over the course of the next few quarters.