Replies to post #36095 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[Conrad]

Hi Toof

There seems to be a disconnect between your model portfolio example and your actual results investing in a real stock. What do you attribute that too?

In real life you can't choose every individual stock correctly I suspect.

Actually things run pretty well on course. A disconnect with a fictitious Demo as my Penny Stock Portfolio will of course always be the case. This also is true for any fictitious Test Price Structure.

My Spy Demo runs for 2 years on January 3rd, and I ïnvested" in it as if a sonservative investor would have done with real money. No disconnect on that one. . It is ratherconservatively executed and reflects reality for a conservative oersin. Of course I realize that SPY is an Index, so a conservative approach even with an AIM-like method would not create spectacular results. I would be interested in what other AIMers got on SPY for the last 2 years!

Per Dec. 7 the Vortex Results are:

SPY
ROTAC yield based on "invested" start capital of $ 20000 = 6.64 %/yr
The Buy & Hold Yield for the same period = 6.02 %/yr.

ROTAI yield based on the Equity purchases = 13.4 %/yr.
Average invested Capital at Risk = 6776 !!!


PostNL
The Stock that I actually bought on December 3rd dipped 2.5% on Dec 4 and came right back and went higher. I bought only a small package worth € 1327 with a € 10 Trading cost. Just for some experimentation. . . and to Test the Vortex Optimization Package on a real case. The stock is rather volatile and I like that. For the last 1/2 year is was I estimate About +/- 20 and 30 % between the Trading Range.

ROTAC based on € 2500 Capital Investment = 5.6%/yr . . . without the € 10 Trading cost the yield = 46 %/yr :-)

I know it means little as yet, except that the volatility is doing its work! What Post NL will do in the long term is of course crucial.

ROTAI = 11 %/yr. . .without the € 10 cost it is 120%/yr.
Average Investment = 1327(not counting the € 10 Trading cost).
Average Investment = 1337 counting the trading Cost.
Profit in 4 days = € 1,69 :-)
Trading Cost is recovered :-) but if I sell now it will cost € 10 again.

In VORTEX all trading costs are included as investments in the ROTAI Formula. In this sense the yield figures are conservatively calculated.