Although you do bring up good points with respect to the IP and future contracts, both of these intangibles and hard to appraise. However keep in mind: yet to be awarded federal grant money of $116 million will not be available to foreign companies.
To answer your question, my only motive is to encourage healthy discourse because many here are overly positive yet disillusioned and not even considering the full liabilities. For the record I do hold many shares and am long, but am considering risk of holding through auction. I tend to think shareholders will be left with something. Still, we shouldn't low-ball debt/liabilities of the company!
Lets start with numbers.. Debt is given as $376 million as per August 31 BK filing. Consider that the cash burn rate is $25 million per month as stated by company. So that's $25 million(Sept.) + $25 million (Oct.) + $25 million (Nov.) = $450 million in debt. Now add to this the DIP loan financing of $50 million + 12% interest = $56 million.. KEIP is going to be around $4 million.. That's going to be $510 million in debt so far. As of yet, we haven't even considered court/litigation fees and the pending class action lawsuits against A123 although these are both wildcards but I did read somewhere that A123's legal council are charging over a thousand dollars an hour for their work on the case- you'd think they'd do it on contingency but I digress.
Now consider the scenario where a foreign bidder buys them out and CFIUS mandates repayment to US taxpayers for the $133 million in federal grant money that A123 burned though as per terms of the buyout. All the sudden this is pushes debt/liabilities to $643 million. I tend to feel that this is a real possibility, especially with republican senators putting the heat on Geithner.
Anyway good luck to all and I do hope we at least get decent run up pre auction!
I know someone with whom you should go play a game of horse. You don't mention the value of the future contracts, the patents, the federal grant, etc. This is the leading company is what is going from a 1.5 billion dollar market to 50 billion in the next few years.
Yes, it's rare for a company to emerge from chapter 11 with shareholders intact but A123 has incredible potential for that to be the case.
Also, what motivates you to post here? I own a considerable number of shares so my motive is clear, what's yours? Good Samaritan? -please.
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