How’s this for a theory on the JDZ…?
Sino-dax is gone from Blocks 2, 3, 4. There is evidence – the Equator Annual Report specifically saying that Sinopec relinquished Block 2; the removal of Blocks, 2, 3 and 4 from the Asset Map on the Addax website – to support this. Sinopec, being the strong, silent type, isn’t going to announce this. And, for whatever reason, the JDA has not officially recognized this, and so, ERHC does not legally have to acknowledge it either.
Total is the only company that can presently make a go of the JDZ and, of course, the JDA would like Total to come in as the new operator for all the blocks. Total would be willing to do so, but we all know that ERHC would need to be carried and Total is not willing to carry ERHC at its current level of interest in the blocks (part of the cost/revenue trade-off you point out).
But, ERHC is not leaving, and why should they? Their interests are secured for at least another decade. However, they know that Total can wait them out, so they are willing to negotiate their percentage interests rather than lose out altogether. But, ERHC knows that the JDA, or at least Sao Tome, does not want to wait another 10+ years, so ERHC says, “Hey Sao Tome/JDA…we are willing to play the game but you guys have to give something here, too.”
And so, that is where we are. In the middle of tedious, back-and-forth negotiations between the JDA, ERHC and Total, trying to get to the “sweet spot” where everyone smiles and shake hands.
Again, just a theory.
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