Replies to post #151688 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Seems that Gilenya share comes a lot more at the expense of the beta interferon class than of Copaxone and Tysabri.

This has been the case, albeit to a lesser degree, ever since the Gilenya launch—see, for instance, the chart in #msg-65574194.

[DewDiligence]

Re: Musings on Copaxone’s US market share

According to @AndyBiotech on Twitter (a reliable source, IMO), Copaxone’s share of total US prescriptions (TRx)—three months after the Tecfidera launch—is about 35%, down from 40% prior to the Tecfidera launch. Moreover, Copaxone’s share of new US prescriptions (NRx) is about 25%.

AndyBiotech thinks the 25% NRx number is where Copaxone’s TRx number will eventually end up, but I disagree to some extent. In my opinion, Copaxone’s NRx number has been artificially suppressed from the intense publicity surrounding the Tecfidera launch, and it will retrace part of the path to its pre-launch baseline.

When the dust settles (i.e. when Copaxone’s NRx % and TRx % become roughly equal), I expect Copaxone to maintain an approximate 30% share of the US market.