Replies to post #151116 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

ALXN has 1 bil in sales with a 20 bil MC right this minute.

I think ALXN gets their high market cap due to their focus on rare orphan-type diseases (don't think CML is apples-to-apples to the diseases ALXN focuses on) that lends to them essentially having markets to themself with high margins. Besides, who is to say that ALXN isn't overvalued? ; )

[DewDiligence]

For the record, I don’t think an ARIA valuation of $20B (your figure) is silly or even unlikely by the end of the decade; due to the magic of compounding arithmetic, a quintupling of valuation in 8 years merely requires an annual appreciation of 22%.

My main point in this thread is that you will be assuming a considerable amount of risk while seeking that 22% annual return, and this risk hadn’t been fully acknowledged by ARIA longs on this board, who have often characterized Ponatinib as a sure thing.