Replies to post #151150 on Biotech Values

[JJM760]

For the record, I don’t think an ARIA valuation of $20B (your figure) is silly or even unlikely by the end of the decade; due to the magic of compounding arithmetic, a quintupling of valuation in 8 years merely requires an annual appreciation of 22%.

I said that I thought it was achievable in 5 years, so I don't think that we are that far off here. The only difference is that I believe Ponatinib has the potential to achieve 2 billion in sales/20 billion MC due to Ponatinib in CML alone.

Where we also part company is in what's left to contribute to the MC from there. Ponatinib in all of the other indications, 113 in Alk+, 113 in EGFR, the Argent licensing deal with Bellicum and whatever Ariad has coming out of the lab should also contribute very substantially to the MC as well. How much is a guess. But just for shits and giggles, let's call it 2 billion more for the total of all of the other items I listed in 5 years. Is that over-reaching to assume that? I don't know, it may turn out to be a low ball number.

I am not a fool. If Ariad was a one pump chump, I would have sold a substantial percentage of my holdings by now. There is certainly a risk in holding from here, however I believe that this story will unfold nicely for those who have the wherewithal to stick around for a the next chapter.