Replies to post #92211 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[biopharm]

Excellent post! ....please repost that at critical times when tbe shorts try and paint a negative picture....because we are far from that and in the midst of a major breakthrough due to the science! Bavi is succeeding!

Remember....those who are long time investors giving the truth have day jobs and investing for the longterm.....vs the shorts who primary job js to trade stocks for a living!

We get a paycheck at the end of the week.... the shorts get not one dime unless they can force stocks to move one dime every day! They are working for their money but that does not mean they get to market and advertise certain stocks daily with the vile is half empty truths!

Peregriness vile of Bavi is half full! ...and once a partnering deal is announced...they will have e capping off that full vile if Bavituximab and doing a great service, fulfilling a much greater unmet medical need of assisting cancer patients around the world!

Dont help the weekly paycheck of the shorts as they target Peregrine....because they are getting desperate and prettt pissed off that they have not been able ti turn as many hands as they thought they would!

Keep smiling....and Team Peregrine is moving on to higher ground! : )

[geocappy1]

RRdog

Very logical points. Here is one more from the gut piece of logic to add.

Not only did Oxford, Midcap Financial, and Silicon Valley Bank make the loan to pphm at a reasonable interest rate, they chose to take a fee in the form of warrants. It is not unususal (we have seen it 1st hand) that a lender would want an up front fee in addition to their interest rate, however, after reviewing all the info presented to them they chose to take their fee in the form of warrants. Having seen many loans with large up front points paid I would call the fee in the form of warrants an investment in pphm's upside.

[pacemakernj]

RRdog, Well Said, Well Said! EOM.

[mojojojo]

At the current P value the odds of this Phase II study being duplicated favorably in a larger Phase III study of similar design are 98%.

I don't think that's true. The probability of 98% is based on duplicating the same trial and having it reach the same HR of 0.524. Since their new phase 3 trial will be designed to return statistically significant results at a much higher HR, it makes the probability of success much greater than 98%. Remember, Joe Shan said this:

We've stated before that we'd like to keep the Phase III study in the 300 to 500 patient range, and, working backwards, you can imagine it's going to be a Hazard Ratio of less than 0.8, but not as low as 0.5, so somewhere in between there.

All IMO,

mojo

[biopharm]

I do note that the critics are responsible for not one drug succeeding at the FDA nor for one dollar of biotech revenue. Dr Garnick is responsible for many tens of billions of dollars of biotech revenue.

The weight of the argument is now so heavily in favor of PPHM that the whole subject becomes tedious. There is not much more value in addressing this particular question.

When I play poker, I try to get my money in with favorable odds.
If I am lucky, I might find situations where the odds are 1.5-1 or 2-1 or 4-1 or at best 10-1. At the current P value the odds of this Phase II study being duplicated favorably in a larger Phase III study of similar design are 98%. I want to get my money in.

Garnick, realizing the odds, wants the study to be almost exactly the same except for the increase in "N". Why wouldn't he?? He uses the key code words "straightforward" and "derisk". Faced with these overwhelmingly favorable odds and the size of the NSCLC market as well as the larger overall potential of bavi ,---"If you were a BP, what would you do Madam????"

IMHO, stay cool, use weakness to further accumulate if you are able, and anticipate further major bullish news.

a good post by RRdog and combine all that with the knowledge that the Phase IIb trial results were "MUCH BETTER" than previously thought and we have one hell of a run coming up. Peregrine was sabotaged, the 3mg Bavi arm would have been 133% +++ better than previously reported and who knows, 150% or 300% or more? All I do know is even Brekken likes what he is seeing, and he is seeing 200-300% better results for overall response rates when some downstream drugs are combined with Bavituximab.

That just may make all downstream SOC, a much better SOC and a renewed patent life begins again.... or if required to do so, generics would work just as well I would think, and may not even need to deal with many BP's, if at all.

[Carboat]

Dr. Garnick, when presented with the same data was quoted: "Having personally been involved in the evaluation of over 30 Phase II trials over my career, none of which ever achieved statistical significance, including many of today's blockbuster biotech products,

and that was proven to be a lie/error. More than a couple were PII statsig. Where does that leave you. I agree the odds here are good but the proper poker analogy for me is pot odds. The trial itself seems more like 60:40 in pphm favor. The upside return if they succeed being much higher than the downside yields the strong potodds.