Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[mojojojo]

At the current P value the odds of this Phase II study being duplicated favorably in a larger Phase III study of similar design are 98%.

I don't think that's true. The probability of 98% is based on duplicating the same trial and having it reach the same HR of 0.524. Since their new phase 3 trial will be designed to return statistically significant results at a much higher HR, it makes the probability of success much greater than 98%. Remember, Joe Shan said this:

We've stated before that we'd like to keep the Phase III study in the 300 to 500 patient range, and, working backwards, you can imagine it's going to be a Hazard Ratio of less than 0.8, but not as low as 0.5, so somewhere in between there.

All IMO,

mojo