Replies to post #62932 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[wbmw]

Re: I'd give 1000 to 1 odds that Intel won't reach $37 in the next two years.

Famous last words....

[alan81]

1000:1 on INTC=37 by Sept. '07!
I'll put $5,000 vs. your $5M on that bet!
You realize 37 is only a P/E of 28 using TTM earnings right?
Not sure if I posted this graph here before or not:
http://home.surewest.net/alan81/posts/intel_amd_revenue_comparisons.htm
Pretty much shows that historically total market revenue is at least a factor of 10 more important to INTC than what AMD does. I'll keep tracking to see if that changes... but so far not much.
--Alan

[Tim Fowler]

I don't think Intel will go to $37 either, but I would certainly take the 1000 to one odds. I'd then sell some Intel calls with strike prices of close to $37, for more then enough to cover the "one". No way I can lose other then you not paying off the bet (in which case I could lose my shirt if Intel goes over $40) or Intel zooming so high that selling those calls is 1000 to one loser.

Yes, I know I'm taking you entirely too literally. I do that sometimes...

Tim

[jhalada]

UpNDown,

I'd give 1000 to 1 odds that Intel won't reach $37 in the next two years.

I think you would find that the option market will give you better odds on this bet.

Joe

[smooth2o]

Huh?

@ $37 the TTM earnings is a P/E of only 25... P/E has been about 17... Totally reasonable.

Smooth