Replies to post #20741 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[glass_half_full]

I would also note that of all actual cases worldwide, a far greater portion of the US cases will be identified and treated.

To the extent that public health services in non-US areas improve, I would expect those figures to grow relative to the US figures.

Regarding macro environment, NFLX and AAPL missed everything and are down sharply AH. Ideally, this would be a great chance to show that ARIA isn't a high-beta tail on the NASDAAPL dog....

[jaybe]

I prefer HB's version of patient population...

125,000 patients globally for EGFR (50% resistant due to T790M mutation out of 250,000 total)

50,000 patients globally for ALK (5% of NSCLC, small increase in occurence from 4%)

10,000 patients for ROS (1% of NSCLC)

Total potential global patient population = 185,000


'113 Market Share
I assume 30% T790M EGFR (30% Erlotinib, 30% Dacomitinib, 10% Other)
I assume 45% of market in ALK (25% Crizotinib, 30% LDK378, 10% Other)
I assume 30% ROS (30% Crizotinib, 40% Other)


Total market share of global patients for 113 = 37,500 EGFR + 22,500 ALK + 3,000 ROS = 63,000

63,000 patients x $100,000/ year = $6.3B for '113 in 2021


'113...not too shabby....

[ariadndndough]

DON this report is 6 months old but still a nice one to get michael perspective in sales years out on 113. thought it would be nice for all of us to review.

Rodman update

http://tinyurl.com/6vld4st