I prefer HB's version of patient population...
125,000 patients globally for EGFR (50% resistant due to T790M mutation out of 250,000 total)
50,000 patients globally for ALK (5% of NSCLC, small increase in occurence from 4%)
10,000 patients for ROS (1% of NSCLC)
Total potential global patient population = 185,000
'113 Market Share
I assume 30% T790M EGFR (30% Erlotinib, 30% Dacomitinib, 10% Other)
I assume 45% of market in ALK (25% Crizotinib, 30% LDK378, 10% Other)
I assume 30% ROS (30% Crizotinib, 40% Other)
Total market share of global patients for 113 = 37,500 EGFR + 22,500 ALK + 3,000 ROS = 63,000
63,000 patients x $100,000/ year = $6.3B for '113 in 2021
'113...not too shabby....
