If an approval comes without any conditions, I think $4 is quite possible given the small float. Approval is not guaranteed though. I still think it'll happen based on the FDA panel vote, and the fact that carfilzomib, a cancer drug with a very similar safety and efficacy profile (although it is used to treat a different form of cancer), was recently approved even though analysts initially felt strongly that it wouldn't be. The FDA has been heavily leaning toward approval lately, even with questionable drugs. Lorcaserin, qnexa, and carfilzomib were all questionable drugs which probably wouldn't have been approved a few years ago.
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