Replies to post #179355 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[SPARK]

I believe it is imminent -- perhaps within around two months at the outside

Me too..

[fuagf]

F6, even with all those my gut feeling is no .. not so soon, if when .. lol, my gut feelings aren't so tops with a
gamble, still HOPE you are wrong .. this time .. :) .. wrong that is only about an attack .. more consideration
from Iran would be great .. without looking now, whatever happened to the Russia takes Iran's uranium,
processes it and gives it back? .. is that ALL lost now? .. maybe something could still happen there ..

[StephanieVanbryce]

Iran bolsters retaliation capability in Persian Gulf, experts say


Stringer/Iran/Reuters - Military personnel place a flag on a submarine during the Velayat-90 war games by the Iranian navy in the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran December 27, 2011.

By Joby Warrick, Published: July 26

Iran is rapidly gaining new capabilities to strike at U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf, amassing an arsenal of sophisticated anti-ship missiles while expanding its fleet of fast-attack boats and submarines, U.S. and Middle Eastern analysts say.

The new systems, many of them developed with foreign assistance, are giving Iran’s commanders new confidence that they could quickly damage or destroy U.S. ships if hostilities erupt, the officials say.

Although U.S. Navy officials are convinced that they would prevail in a fight, Iran’s advances have fueled concerns about U.S. vulnerabilities during the opening hours of a conflict in the gulf.

Increasingly accurate short-range missiles — combined with Iran’s use of “swarm” tactics involving hundreds of heavily armed patrol boats — could strain the defensive capabilities of even the most modern U.S. ships, current and former military analysts say.

In recent weeks, as nuclear talks with world powers have faltered and tensions have risen, Iran has repeated threats to shut down shipping in the oil-rich gulf region. Its leaders also have warned of massive retaliation for any attacks on its nuclear facilities, which the United States believes are civilian covers for an Iranian drive to acquire a nuclear-weapons capability.

Last week, Iran’s Foreign Ministry declared that the presence of U.S. warships in the gulf constituted a “real threat” to the region’s security.

Pentagon officials have responded by sending more ships, urged on by Congress as well as U.S. allies in the region. This month, the Navy announced that it would deploy the aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis to the Middle East four months ahead of schedule. The shift will keep two carriers in the gulf region.

The United States also has announced new military exercises in the region, including a mine-sweeping drill in the gulf, and has moved to add new radar stations and land-based missile-defense batteries in Qatar.

Assessing the risks

The likelihood that Iran would risk an all-out attack on a vastly superior U.S. fleet is judged to be small. But Iranian leaders could decide to launch a limited strike if Israel or the United States bombed the country’s nuclear facilities. Analysts also cautioned that a conflict could be sparked by an Iranian attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow passage through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil passes from the Persian Gulf into open seas — in retaliation for international economic sanctions. [ http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/new-sanctions-hit-iran-amid-diplomatic-stalemate/2012/06/29/gJQAdqt9BW_story.html ]

In either scenario, Iran’s ability to inflict significant damage is substantially greater than it was a decade ago. A Pentagon study in April warned that Iran had made gains in the “lethality and effectiveness” of its arsenal. The Pentagon declined to comment for this article.

Iran’s increased power to retaliate has led some military experts to question the wisdom of deploying aircraft carriers and other expensive warships to the gulf if a conflict appears imminent.

A 2009 study prepared for the Naval War College [ http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA502907 ] warns of Iran’s increasing ability to “execute a massive naval ambush” in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway dotted with small islands and inlets and perfectly suited for the kind of asymmetric warfare preferred by Iran’s commanders.

“If the U.S. chooses to station warships in the Strait of Hormuz during the buildup to conflict, it cedes the decision of when to fight and allows the fight to begin in the most advantageous place for Iran,” wrote the study’s author, Navy Lt. Cmdr. Colin Boynton. “This could lead to a devastating first salvo on U.S. Navy warships, which would most likely be operating under restrictive rules of engagement.”

Since 2009, analysts say, Iran has added defensive and offensive capabilities. Some of them have been on display in recent months in a succession of military drills, including a missile exercise in early July dubbed Great Prophet 7. The exercise included a demonstration of Iran’s newly deployed Khalid Farzh anti-ship missile, which has an internal guidance system, a powerful 1,400-pound warhead and a range of 180 miles.

Iran’s arsenal already included a variety of anti-ship missiles such as the Chinese-made Silkworm. More recently, Iran has boasted of progress in developing high-speed torpedoes based on Russian designs. Such claims are often exaggerated, but the April Pentagon assessment [ http://www.fas.org/man/eprint/dod-iran.pdf ] noted that Iran’s arsenal now includes ballistic missiles with “seekers” that enable them to maneuver toward ships during flight.

Modern U.S. warships are equipped with multiple defense systems, such as the ship-based Aegis missile shield. But Iran has sought to neutralize the U.S. technological advantage by honing an ability to strike from multiple directions at once. The emerging strategy relies not only on mobile missile launchers but also on new mini-submarines, helicopters and hundreds of heavily armed small boats known as fast-attack craft.

These highly maneuverable small boats, some barely as long as a subway car, have become a cornerstone of Iran’s strategy for defending the gulf against a much larger adversary. The vessels can rapidly deploy Iran’s estimated 2,000 anti-ship mines or mass in groups to strike large warships from multiple sides at once, like a cloud of wasps attacking much larger prey.

A Middle Eastern intelligence official who helps coordinate strategy for the gulf with U.S. counterparts said some Navy ships could find themselves in a “360-degree threat environment,” simultaneously in the cross hairs of adversaries on land, in the air, at sea and even underwater.

“This is the scenario that is giving people nightmares,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in discussing strategy for defending against a possible Iranian attack.

The Navy has ordered new systems for defending against small-boat “swarms,” including ship-launched unmanned aerial vehicles and special missiles and artillery rounds for use against fast-attack craft. But many of the new defenses will not be deployed for several months, said Michael Eisenstadt, a former military adviser to the Pentagon and the State Department.

“We’re behind and we’re catching up,” Eisenstadt said. “But if there’s a conflict in the near term, we may not be completely ready.”

U.S. forces would probably recover quickly from any early losses, but Iranian leaders could claim a psychological victory if the world’s media carried images of burning U.S. warships in the gulf, Eisenstadt said. Al-Qaeda landed a similar blow in 2000 when suicide bombers on a small boat heavily damaged the destroyer USS Cole in the Yemeni port of Aden, an attack that killed 17 sailors and wounded nearly 40 others.

U.S. forces would probably recover quickly from any early losses, but Iranian leaders could claim a psychological victory if the world’s media carried images of burning U.S. warships in the gulf, Eisenstadt said. Al-Qaeda landed a similar blow in 2000 when suicide bombers on a small boat heavily damaged the destroyer USS Cole in the Yemeni port of Aden, an attack that killed 17 sailors and wounded nearly 40 others.

“A lot of Iranian ships would be at the bottom of the gulf, but [Iran] would be able to point to a victory,” Eisenstadt said. “The outcome would never be in doubt when you’re dealing with the most powerful military in the world. But in their minds they would have shown the world that if you mess with us, you’ll pay a heavy price.”

A push for credibility

The Iranian naval buildup is described by U.S. officials as part of an effort by the Islamic Republic to bolster its military credibility in the region.

The Pentagon’s April assessment said Iran was making steady progress in developing ballistic missiles capable of striking targets in Israel and beyond. It also said Tehran was enhancing its well-established capacity to launch terrorist attacks using surrogates such as Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based militia movement that operates a network of cells around the world.

U.S. and Israeli intelligence officials have linked Iran and Hezbollah to a string of assassination attempts and terrorist attacks on three continents in the past six months — from the foiled plot to kill a Saudi diplomat in Washington last fall to the deadly bombing of a tour bus filled with Israelis last week in Bulgaria. Current and former U.S. officials say more attacks are likely if Israel launches a preemptive strike on Iran’s uranium-enrichment plants.

“Iran has the capacity to attack, from Argentina to Venezuela, in Asia, in Europe and throughout the Middle East,” Danielle Pletka, a defense expert at the American Enterprise Institute, said Wednesday in testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “It seems naïve to believe it does not have the capacity to launch attacks in the United States.”

The arms buildup in the gulf comes as Israeli officials continue to weigh an airstrike that many experts believe would ignite a larger conflict. A stream of Obama administration officials, including Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta, have visited Israel in recent weeks to lobby against a unilateral attack. Middle East experts say that Israel has not decided to attack but that the risk of an Israeli strike is rising as hopes of a diplomatic settlement to the nuclear crisis evaporate.

David Makovsky, a Middle East expert with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said after discussions with top Israeli officials that he assessed the chances of a strike at “50-50 .?.?. before the U.S. elections” in November. “There’s this feeling that Israel’s window is closing.”

U.S. ships, meanwhile, continue steaming toward the gulf as the Obama administration seeks to reassure allies in the region and discourage Iran from moving to block the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. and Middle Eastern officials acknowledge that deployments carry inherent risk, but they say there are no good alternatives.

“It is a dilemma,” the Middle East intelligence official said. “When the Navy ships are in the strait, they are vulnerable to attack. But if you were to take them away, the gulf countries would feel more vulnerable. And already they feel very, very vulnerable.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iran-bolsters-retaliation-capability-in-gulf-experts-say/2012/07/26/gJQAQuFUCX_singlePage.html

[StephanieVanbryce]

Obama's terror adviser meets top Israeli intel officials on Iran, Hezbollah

U.S. chief adviser on terrorism John Brennan came to Israel for talks on Bulgaria bombing
and attempted terror attacks by Iran, Hezbollah over the past three years.

By Barak Ravid | Jul.26, 2012 | 5:15 PM

John O. Brennan, President Barak Obama's chief adviser on counter-terrorism, was in Israel on July 25 for talks with the heads of the Israeli intelligence community on the Burgas, Bulgaria terror attack targeting Israelis. Brennan arrived in Israel directly from similar talks in Sofia, the Bulgarian capital.

In Israel, Brennan met with National Security Adviser Brig.-Gen. (ret) Yaakov Amidror, NSC Counter-Terrorism Bureau head Eitan Ben-David and senior officials of the Mossad, the Shin Bet security service and the Israel Defense Forces Intelligence Branch.

A senior U.S. administration official said that Brennan's talks in Israel centered on the progress of the joint investigation around the Burgas attack by U.S., Israeli and Bulgarian intelligence agents. However, the talks touched, in a wider sense, on terror attacks the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah have attempted to mount over the last three years.

A week after the Burgas attacks, Israeli, Bulgarian and U.S. still have no leads on the identity of the suicide bomber. Israel and the U.S. maintain that Hezbollah was behind the attack, but have so far failed to produce substantial evidence to support this assertion. At a joint press conference with Brennan, Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov admitted that there was no information concerning the terrorist or those who dispatched him.

According to the senior American official, Brennan's Israeli talks also dealt with the situation in Syria and the level of al-Qaida's involvement in the revolt against the Assad regime, the situation in Sinai and the smuggling of weapons to Palestinian terror organizations in the Gaza Strip.

Long-time CIA veteran Brennan's last post in the Central Intelligence Agency was as head of the National Counterterrorism Center. His affiliation with Obama dates back to the 2008 presidential campaign, and he is considered one of the president's closest adviser. In the White House, he coordinated the U.S. team that carried out the killing of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.

Brennan was the fourth senior American official to visit Israel in 10 days. He was preceded by Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and National Security Adviser Tom Donilon. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta is due next Tuesday. The wave of visits of senior Obama administration officials parallels the planned visit by Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential candidate, who is due to land in Israel on Saturday night.

http://www.haaretz.com/misc/article-print-page/obama-s-terror-adviser-meets-top-israeli-intel-officials-on-iran-hezbollah.premium-1.453842?trailingPath=2.169%2C2.240%2C2.371%2C

[StephanieVanbryce]

Air Force’s Mega-Bunker-Buster Bomb Is Finally Ready

Spencer Ackerman
July 26, 2012 10:51 am


Boeing’s mega-bunker-buster bomb during its first explosive test at White Sands Missile Range, 2007. Photo: Wikimedia

Just as the U.S. returns its attention to concealed weapons of mass destruction programs in Syria and (possibly [ http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/11/loose-geek/ ]) Iran, the Air Force is saying its mega-weapon for blowing up hidden factories of death is finally ready.

That would be the Massive Ordnance Penetrator — all 30,000 destructive pounds of it. It’s an absolutely ginormous bomb [ http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/06/pentagon-orders-massive-bunker-busters-for-underground-wmd/ ] designed to convince rogue regimes that there is no redoubt for the manufacture of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons buried deep enough to escape the U.S. Air Force.

The military has been at work super-sizing its bunker-busters for years, and the Massive Ordnance Penetrator is the premier upgraded weapon. Supposedly, it can penetrate 60 feet of reinforced concrete, although it depends just how hard that concrete is. Although the Pentagon has spent over $200 million developing 30 of the bombs, there are doubts over how well equipped it is to destroy the hardened facilities believed to house Iran’s nuclear program.

The secretary of the Air Force does not share those doubts. “If it needed to go today, we would be ready to do that,” [ http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2012/07/airforce-donley-MOP-072512/ ] Secretary Michael Donley told Danger Room pal Jeff Schogol of Air Force Times. “We continue to do testing on the bomb to refine its capabilities, and that is ongoing. We also have the capability to go with existing configuration today.”

Donley may not have had Iran in mind. The beleaguered Syrian regime of Bashar Assad is threatening to use chemical weapons against a foreign attack. His chemical arsenal is spread out amongst several concealed sites [ http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/07/syria/ ] and stands a giant proliferation risk. Not the greatest opportunity for a mega-bomb — intelligence about the sites is dubious — but the U.S. would rather have the option than not.

Then there’s Iran. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta may have been hinting about the new bomb’s capabilities when he remarked that the U.S. would do a better job of attacking Iran [ http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/03/panetta-iran-israel/ ] than Israel could. Not that that’s what the Obama administration wants to do.

The Massive Ordnance Penetrator may even have a political component to it. During a debate on foreign policy between surrogates for Mitt Romney and Barack Obama at the Brookings Institution on Wednesday, former Amb. Rich Williamson accused the Obama administration of ruling out the use of military force for Iran. The long-awaited arrival of the Massive Ordnance Penetrator would suggest otherwise. (Plus, its acronym has special resonance to fans of a certain era of East Coast hip hop. [

])

Brief History

Rush Delivery for Mother of All Bunker Busters

October 13, 2009 |
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/10/rush-delivery-for-mother-of-all-bunker-busters/?utm_source=Contextly&utm_medium=RelatedLinks&utm_campaign=Previous

Pentagon Orders Massive Bunker-Busters for Underground WMD

June 12, 2009
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/06/pentagon-orders-massive-bunker-busters-for-underground-wmd/?utm_source=Contextly&utm_medium=RelatedLinks&utm_campaign=Previous

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/07/massive-ordnance-penetrator/

[StephanieVanbryce]

Defense chief Leon Panetta to visit Middle East for talks with officials about Syria, Iran

By Associated Press, Published: July 26

WASHINGTON — Defense Secretary Leon Panetta will head to the Middle East next week and is expected to speak with Israeli and Jordanian officials about the conflict in Syria and worries about Iran.

His visit comes at a critical time, as the U.S. considers its options for more direct involvement in Syria’s civil war. Reports this week suggested that Iranian leaders will support Syrian President Bashar Assad’s crackdown.

Pentagon press secretary George Little said the U.S. doesn’t believe that any al-Qaida affiliates have a significant presence inside the Syrian opposition battling Assad’s government. He said that while the U.S. military is doing prudent planning on options for Syria, he provided no details.

Little said Panetta also plans to meet with the Egypt’s newly elected President Mohammed Morsi and will stop in Tunisia, showing America’s commitment to the government reforms in those two countries.

His Middle East trip comes days after Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s scheduled visit to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and others.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/panetta-heads-to-the-middle-east-next-week-will-talk-with-leaders-about-syrian-conflict/2012/07/26/gJQAiR9lBX_story.html

[F6]

Report: US Presents Israel With Iran Strike Plan

by Amy Teibel
Jul 30, 2012

JERUSALEM -- An Israeli newspaper reported Sunday that the Obama administration's top security official has briefed Israel on U.S. plans for a possible attack on Iran, seeking to reassure it that Washington is prepared to act militarily should diplomacy and sanctions fail to pressure Tehran to abandon its nuclear enrichment program.

A senior Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential talks, said the article in the Haaretz daily was incorrect.

Haaretz said National Security Adviser Tom Donilon laid out the plans before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a dinner at a visit to Israel earlier this month. It cited an unidentified senior American official as the source of its report, which came out as presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney was telling Israel he would back an Israeli military strike against Iran.

The American official also said Donilon shared information on U.S. weapons that could be used for such an attack, and on the U.S. military's ability to reach Iranian nuclear facilities buried deep underground, the newspaper said. It cited another U.S. official involved in the talks with Israel as concluding that "the time for a military operation against Iran has not yet come."

The Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a confidential meeting, said, "Nothing in the article is correct. Donilon did not meet the prime minister for dinner, he did not meet him one-on-one, nor did he present operational plans to attack Iran." He had no information when asked if Donilon had discussed any kind of attack plans with any Israeli official. Haaretz said another Israeli official attended for part of the meeting.

The U.S. Embassy had no immediate comment. Haaretz cited Tommy Vietor, a spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, as declining to comment on the confidential discussion between Netanyahu and Donilon. The White House also declined comment.

Both Israel and the U.S. think Iran's ultimate aim is to develop weapons technology, and not just produce energy and medical isotopes as Tehran claims. U.S. officials are concerned that Israel might attack Iranian nuclear facilities prematurely, and have been trying to convince Israeli leaders they can depend on Washington to keep Iran from becoming a nuclear power.

Israeli leaders have repeatedly said they would not contract out their country's security to another nation.

In Jerusalem on Sunday, a top Romney foreign policy adviser told reporters, "If Israel has to take action on its own, in order to stop Iran from developing the capability (to build a nuclear weapon), the governor would respect that decision." Romney also thinks the option of a U.S. attack should be on the table.

© Copyright 2012 Associated Press

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2012/07/30/report-us-presents-israel-with-iran-strike-plan.html [with comments]


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Panetta, Israeli Leaders Warn Iran
August 01, 2012
JERUSALEM — U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Israeli leaders on Wednesday warned Iran that time is running out to resolve disputes over its controversial nuclear program.
Speaking at a press conference in Jerusalem with the visiting Pentagon chief, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said international sanctions aren't changing Iran's path toward development of nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear aims are peaceful.
"You recently said that sanctions on Iran are having a big impact on the Iranian economy, and that is correct," Netanyahu told Panetta. "But unfortunately it is also true that neither sanctions nor diplomacy have yet had any impact on Iran's nuclear weapons program.
"You yourself said a few months ago that when all else fails, America will act," Netanyahu added. "But these declarations have also not yet convinced the Iranians to stop their program. However forceful our statements, they have not convinced Iran that we are serious about stopping them."
Panetta's Warning
Earlier, Panetta said U.S. patience with Iran is running thin.
"They have a choice to make," he said during a visit to a missile defense battery in the southern port town of Ashkelon with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
"They can either negotiate in a way that tries to resolve these issues and has them abiding by international rules and requirements and giving up their effort to develop their nuclear capability," Panetta said. "But if they don't, and if they continue to make the decision to proceed with a nuclear weapon ... we have options that we are prepared to implement to ensure that does not happen."
[...]
http://www.voanews.com/content/panetta-touts-us-israeli-defense-ties/1452228.html [with comments]


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Panetta Counts the Ways


DAVID BUIMOVITCH/AFP/GettyImages

Iron Dome, the Joint Strike Fighter, and other signs of America's love for Israel.

BY KEVIN BARON | AUGUST 1, 2012

ASHKELON, Israel — It was a public display of affection even a hard-liner could love.

Standing in front of a rocket-busting Iron Dome battery paid for by American tax dollars, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak posed side-by-side for cameras in the middle of a hot and dusty farmer's field just five miles from the Gaza border. Then they gushed.

The "special relationship" Israel has with the U.S. military is stronger than it's ever been, Barak claimed. "This is the strongest alliance that we have," Panetta added, flirting with a Mitt Romney-esque gaffe that may reverberate in Great Britain.

Barak called him "my friend." Panetta called him "Ehud."

It was a starkly contrasting image from Romney's rabbi-walk to the Western Wall this weekend. Romney, in Jerusalem speeches, overtly and implicitly claimed President Obama has not done enough for Israel's defense and not used the military enough to pressure Iran. The White House, he claimed, had created "diplomatic distance" here, and he called for "further action" against Iran in Israel's defense.

In reality, it is hard to imagine what else the United States could do to back Israel more strongly than it already has. Instead of specifics, Romney's attacks were directed at the White House, ignoring the tight relationships between U.S. and Israeli senior military officers, and keeping his rhetoric at the 10,000 foot-level. At that level, though, Panetta and Barak are right about the candidate's close ties.

Asked for his view on Romney's characterizations, Barak invoked the old rule of not commenting on American candidate positions, but made his position clear. U.S. and Israeli militaries have grown stronger and closer over decades, no matter what the party colors of the U.S. president.

"We have a long tradition of friendship with America," he said. "I have been exposed to it personally and I have seen it going deeper and deeper along the years" no matter which party ran the White House. "Of course, we expect it to be continued by the next administration," he said, no matter who wins in November.

Panetta, for his part, said the proof is "backed not only by our words but by our deeds." Iron Dome, he said, is but one example and "a game changer" for Israeli security because of its 80 percent success rate. Last month there were 12 rocket attacks in the area and the battery behind them knocked them all down, including five Grad rockets launched simultaneously from Gaza, according to Israeli Col. Zvika Haimovich, commander of all of Israel's "active-defense" units like Iron Dome. Since last year, the systems have hit more than 100 rockets from the Gaza Strip.

Already, the United States allocated more than $200 million for the system in 2010, and the House-passed authorization bill includes $680 million for 2013. President Obama released an additional $70 million, which came from last month's reprogrammed 2012 funds. It all comes on top of more than $3 billion in aid to Israel expected this year.

Asked about Romney's assertions, Panetta chuckled with a smile, and then said, "The United States and Israel have the strongest relationship when it comes to the military area that we've ever had." Hardware, joint exercises, military aid and financing from America has given Israel a "qualitative edge," including allowing Israel to be the only country in the region to get the Joint Strike Fighter.

Indeed, since World War II the United States has provided $115 billion in bilateral aid to Israel, more than it has given any other country, according to a March report by the Congressional Research Service. Almost all of that money was military aid, and here is where the "special relationship" is clear.

CRS reported that nearly all of Israel's aid is delivered within 30 days of each fiscal year, unlike any other country's. Israel also is given special allowances to use the funds to buy Israeli-made weapons, or conduct their own arms research and development, as opposed to normal requirements to buy U.S.-made goods.

Additionally, the Bush administration and Israel signed a 10-year $30 billion aid package that raised the yearly total to $3.1 billion -- a figure that Obama has honored, CRS found. Of that, nearly $100 million in missile-defense funds falls within the 2013 Defense Department request.

For all of Romney's focus on U.S. support for Israel, though, it is not a hot topic among Republicans in Congress, and particularly not among national security leaders. For members like Senate Armed Services Committee ranking member John McCain, R-Ariz., and House Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon, R-Calif., the concern of the day decidedly domestic: sequester.

The Budget Control Act passed last year forces cuts to discretionary accounts but doesn't mandate which ones. If Congress lets the sequester occur on January 2, 2013, however, Israel stands to lose $263.5 million because of mandatory across-the-board cuts, CRS estimates. With the White House indicating Wednesday that military personnel costs would be exempted from sequester cuts, Israeli aid and other hardware costs would come under even greater threat.

That could hit hard in Israel, where Congress figures U.S. grants account for up to 22 percent of the nation's defense budget. The first Iron Dome batteries deployed last year, including Ashkelon's, cost roughly $50 million each, and each battery contains 20 rockets at nearly $90,000 each.

In 2012, the United States allocated about $110-120 million for Israel's David's Sling system to block medium-range missiles and the Arrow systems built for longer-range ballistic threats, like those possibly posed by Iran.

"These missile shields do not start wars, they prevent wars," Panetta stressed, before leaving for additional meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu -- widely portrayed, rightly or wrongly, as wanting to strike Iran sooner than Washington is willing to concede.

If that ever happens, U.S. officials worry that retaliatory rocket and missile attacks into Israel could cause mass civilian casualties at a level which Israel could not let pass without response. In turn, that retaliation could spark a new and larger conflict in a region where conflict already surrounds Israel.

For that reason and others, Panetta again called for sanctions and diplomacy before military strikes. But he also brought some of the most hawkish language on Iran he's ever used, saying not just the "military option" was on the table but that the U.S. was "prepared to implement" it.

The Pentagon's commitment to Israeli security, Panetta argued, is "rock solid."

©2012 The Foreign Policy Group, LLC

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/08/01/panetta_counts_the_ways [with comment]

--

(linked in) http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=78208944 and preceding and following


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Former Mossad head: Iran should fear next 12 weeks

Former Mossad chief's statement comes as Netanyahu warns time for diplomacy running out amid speculation an attack may take place before US elections.
08/02/2012
Former Mossad chief Efraim Halevy added to speculation of an impending Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear program in a statement published by The New York Times Wednesday.
"If I were an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks," Halevy said.
[...]
http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=279803 [with comments]

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U.S. and Israel Intensify Talks on Iran Options

August 1, 2012
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/world/middleeast/in-israel-panetta-warns-iran-on-nuclear-program.html [ http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/world/middleeast/in-israel-panetta-warns-iran-on-nuclear-program.html?pagewanted=all ]


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Iran tests upgraded version of short-range missile, says can hit sea targets
August 4, 2012
TEHRAN, Iran — Iran claimed Saturday it has successfully test-fired an upgraded version of a short-range ballistic missile with improved accuracy, increasing the Islamic Republic’s capability to strike both land and naval targets.
Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi said the solid-fueled Fateh-110 has a range of 300 kilometers (185 miles). He claimed the weapon could strike with pin-point precision, making it the most accurate weapon of its kind in Iran’s arsenal.
[...]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-tests-upgraded-version-of-short-range-missile-says-can-hit-sea-targets/2012/08/04/63ad231c-de02-11e1-8ad1-909913931f71_story.html [with comments]


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Israel upgrades anti-ballistic defense system, amid recent Iran and Syria drills


An Arrow anti-ballistic defense battery.
Photo by Alon Ron


Iran's Shahab-3 missile is launched by the Revolutionary Guard, during a maneuver outside the city of Qom, Iran, Tuesday, June 28, 2011.
Photo by AP


Two Hezbollah guerrillas prepare Katyusha rockets at their base near the Chebaa Farms area on the Lebanese-Israeli border, May 22, 2001.
Photo by AP

Haaretz analyst Amos Harel says new improvements to Arrow system should be viewed as part of the complex campaign currently conducted between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah.

By Amos Harel | Aug.05, 2012 | 11:18 AM

As regional threats against Israel are being highlighted by the country's leaders, the Defense Ministry is working on upgrading its Arrow anti-ballistic defense system, specifically the Arrow-2.

The ministry did not provide details about the improvements its making, but a senior security official told Haaretz the improved Arrow-2 will allow Israel to intercept medium-range rockets and missiles. This can help against potential attacks by Syrian and Hezbollah M600 advance rockets, an accurate weapon with an estimated range of 300 kilometers. The Arrow's maximal range was apparently also improved.

The Arrow project, developed by Israel Aerospace Industries and by the U.S.-based Boeing in the 90s, is a long-range anti-ballistic defense system. Arrow-2 batteries are already deployed and operational, and according to agreements between the two countries, the U.S. is funding the development of an advanced system, Arrow-3, which will be completed within a few years.

Originally, the Arrow missile was intended for intercepting long-range ballistic missiles such as Syria's various Scuds and Iran's Shahab missiles. In recent years, Israel has developed (with U.S. financial aid) the Iron Dome anti-rocket defense system against short-range threats, such as Qassam and Katyusha rockets. Gradually, the system was upgraded to answer medium-range threats, like the Iranian Fajr-5, which has a range of 75 kilometers.

However, Israel's response to the rocket and missile threats was not complete. There was a gap in the defense, between the Iron Dome's maximum range and the Arrow's minimal range. A third system, David's Sling, is meant to bridge that gap; but it is still being developed and will only be operational in 2015. The improved Arrow-2 is intended as a partial and temporary, though important, response to dealing with the gap until then.

The security source says that the improved Arrow interceptor, named Block-4, includes upgrades to its software, hardware, sensor array, command and control systems, and also to its interception missiles.

Earlier this year another improvement was introduced, when the system's radar
Green Pine radar was replaced by a newer model, the Super Green Pine. The new radar was proven successful in a series of tests, most recently in February.

"The radar is more robust and has improved range," the official said, adding that upgrading the Arrow's command and control system will allow it to expand the response to various threats.

Israel's security establishment, under the direction of Defense Minister Ehud Barak and the ministry's director general Udi Shani, have given funding of missile and rocket defense systems top priority. In 2012, the budget allocated for the defense establishment's Homa missile-interception project was increased. Recently, the Obama administration announced an additional $680 million in U.S. financial aid aimed at funding different ballistic-interception projects.

The new Israeli developments, as well as the Defense Ministry's decision to provide Haaretz with exclusive details about those developments, should be viewed as part of a complex campaign currently being conducted between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah. Just as Syria and Iran are flexing their muscles, demonstrating missile- and rocket-launching capabilities in frequent training exercises, Israel has decided to publicly announce the fact that it had significantly upgraded its defense systems.

In spite of Israel's impressive achievements in its development of missile interception systems, the production rate is still slow. Up until now, only four Iron Dome batteries have been manufactured. The United States has promised funding for four additional batteries. Estimations are that a minimum of 12 Iron Dome batteries will be required to cover Israel's north and south from the threats of short and medium-range rockets.

© Haaretz Daily Newspaper Ltd.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-upgrades-anti-ballistic-defense-system-amid-recent-iran-and-syria-drills.premium-1.456073 [with comments]


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US, Israel arranging roles in Iran war theater?


Reuters / Issei Kato

Published: 06 August, 2012, 03:16

Reports are surfacing of a US-Israeli plan to attack Iran’s ballistic missile batteries, giving Israel extra space to tackle Syria and Hezbollah. While no talks have been confirmed, anonymous sources claim that war plans have been put to paper.

­While it’s unclear how far-reaching the US and Israeli plans are, some say the allies have detailed intentions to destroy the Islamic Republic’s ballistic missiles – and let Israel launch an assault on Syria and Hezbollah to boot.

An anonymous US military source told DEBKAfile, a website covering Israel-related security issues, that the US Air Force will be tasked with destroying Iran’s Shahab-3 ballistic missile batteries. Each of these missiles has a range of 1,280 kilometers (800 miles), making them capable of reaching Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Upgraded versions of the Shahab-3's can reach targets 2,000 kilometers away. In the past, Iran has warned that its missiles will always be ready to launch in case of an attack.

By destroying the Shahabs-3's, Israel would be able to focus its energy on taking on perceived threats from Syria, Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas, without having to worry about an attack from Iran, the official told DEBKAfile.

And last weekend, an anonymous senior US official told an Israeli newspaper that National Security Advisor Tom Donilon had briefed Israeli authorities on a contingency plan, in case of a showdown with Iran.

Israel has denied reports of such a plan, but last week’s talks between US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have still caused a heated debate.

If tensions with Iran increase, some predict the US may attack the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities in an attempt to protect Israel, the source said in a briefing.

But Tehran is only estimated to have between 30 and 40 of these missiles – a small number that could hardly make a dent during times of war. If used against the US and its allies, the missiles would be quickly destroyed by the American Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense Systems and Israel's Arrow guided interceptor rockets.

Even if the missiles had a chance to reach their targets, the military source told DEBKAfile that Iran would probably not waste them all at once.

“They are too canny to leave themselves without some Shahabs in reserve for crises even more acute than the outbreak of war,” the source said.

But Iran has other missiles. Iranian Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi said the fourth generation of high-precision Fateh-110 missiles, with a range of over 300 kilometers (185 miles), was successfully test-fired on Saturday, showing Iran's ability to strike targets in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

“Using new guidance methods, target-striking systems were installed on the missiles and during the flight test … its ability to hit the target without deviation was proven,” Vahidi told the IRNA news agency.

Last month, the Pentagon reported that Iran is working on a missile capable of reaching the United States, and is aiming for completion of the project within the next three years.

And after the US angered Tehran by voting for greater sanctions last week, war seems ever more likely. Israel is now upgrading its Arrow II ballistic missile shield, which is designed to neutralize incoming missiles at altitudes high enough for non-conventional warheads to disintegrate safely.

And whether or not the US Army is ready for another war, the latest sanctions, combined with Iran’s ballistic missile testing, continue to escalate tensions between the US and the Islamic Republic.

http://www.rt.com/news/us-israel-iran-war-plan-926/ [with comments]


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in addition to (linked in) the post to which this is a reply and preceding and (other) following (this always being implicit in my posts), see also (linked in):

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=78200021 (and any future following)

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=78200393 (and any future following)