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rujebus

07/07/12 7:27 AM

#73225 RE: ElohimPerazim #73223

I am just leery of the theory that there is a someone or some group or pair of MMs purposely keeping the pps down. I only see three reasons for someone or some group to keep a pps down; 1) they are shorting the stock, 2) they are trying to buy more shares on the cheap, and 3) personal vendetta.

I think we can eliminate scenario 1. Given the fundamentals of KMAG and the exponentially growing revenues the past year, shorting this stock would have to be an incredibly risky move, and there is no real gain at these levels.

I also think we can eliminate scenario 3. If I had a personal vendetta against a stock, I might try to walk down the pps as much as possible, but eventually I will run out of shares, meaning I would have to buy more (a lot more) in order to repeat the cycle when it goes back up. But in this case, it's not really going back up. So if this scenario holds true, the manipulator is buying and selling in a very small window, and I think there are enough strong hands in KMAG to keep that from being possible. I don't see this as a viable scenario.

The most logical of the three, to me, is scenario 2. Assuming some group is keeping the pps down to buy cheap shares, we have been in the same trading range (more or less) for the last two months. Surely that is more than enough time to get the shares they want. Think about it, how many shares per day would they be buying if they want to accumulate? A million a day? That's a pretty small amount. Perhaps 5 million a day? And let's say they do this everyday. They would have accumulated nearly 200 million shares by now. Wouldn't they have to file forms with the SEC having owned a third of the o/s? I can't see anyone holding this down for accumulation purposes without making themselves known to someone, whether it's the SEC or Jeff et al. And I don't think there are enough shares available between what insiders own, shares bought in any buyback, and the retail longs.

I don't know anymore. I haven't had my morning coffee yet and I think I'm just ranting at this point.
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Think or Swim

07/07/12 7:41 AM

#73226 RE: ElohimPerazim #73223

You are giving to much credit to the market makers.

This is where your theory is flawed. You assume that market makers care about the stocks at this level. This is not the big boards. Market makers at this level do not research these stocks. They view them as all a POS.

Market makers at this level do not want unsettled transactions on their books at the end of the day. It is simply to much risk.

Let's say NITE is 2 million shares short at the end if day. News comes out the next morning and the stock shoots up 1000%. what happened to NITE. He is forced to cover and in the process loses his butt. Way to much risk to hold $8000 worth if shares short to make 10% the next day. Risk, reward is their for market makers to.

MM makes money on the spread. They will short when needed but will always try to settle their books by end if day.