I forgot to indicate the analysis is for the NYSE since it has the clearest E-wave patterns. That means the target/resistance is the 8000 level.
More specifically in regards to the chart with the moving averages in your recent post: Moving averages are lowpass filters that block periods which are harmonics of the filter's period. A 90 day moving average will show everything with a period longer than 90 days, but not harmonics with periods of 90, 45, 22.5 ... days, and only a fraction (as much as 20%) of magnitudes for all other periods less than 90 days, but longer than 2 days.
Here is a table of data. The left side is the NYA closing price. 7801.84 is the close on Friday June 29, 2012, the last date on which the analysis was based. The right side is the backfit and projection. The data at the top of the table is in the future, data at the bottom is in the past.
For the first 3 days of the forecast the projection matched the path of the market well. The projection shows a strong upward bias for the coming week. A simple strategy would be to get out of long positions by the end of next week, and wait until about Wednesday july 18 (after the projection tops) to go short.
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