Replies to post #47168 on Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Oddlot]

Techcharter: one of my basic methods is to draw channels around centered MAs with length of the specific cycle. Assuming that most of the high freq has been eliminated, the channel should contain the high freq motion and touch +/- the boundaries at extremes. The same thought extends to CMAs with 1/4 of main wavelength. IMHO the trendline parallel to the quarterwave MA (realtime, not centered) gives an excellent signal, when violated, that the main cycle has/is turned. If one ID's the direction of the longer cycles as "trend", trading the shorter cycles within their channels, in direction of trend only, works for me. Problems occur at major tops/bottoms but such is life.

Thank you for the conversations.

Oddlot

[Oddlot]

Techcharter: re spectral sys. Have you tested against arbitrary points in the past to see how rapidly the forecast degrades? This would indicate how often you must update the parameters.
Oddlot