Replies to post #13443 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[treit2002]

imo, the validation of 2011 projections came with the Q3 results of $20M revenues. Same will happen for 2012 with revenues of $50M. Bad news is that release will be in mid November. Good news is in mid November there will be lots of concurrent news relating to the establishment of distribution and retail, creating the vertical integration always envisioned, as well relating to uplisting/dusl listing progress.

Maybe this is when the share price makes some move toward the minimum AMEX share price.

That $50M quarter will require construction revenue from the new cattle farm, presumably already contracted, and from both new fish farms projected. It will also require that fish sales from FF1, the open pond, and the baby shrimp FF#3 all be on track. And it will require good revenues from HU, and some distribution starting.

Because this validation will not be evidenced until mid-November is why it's so important that every step toward that $50M quarter is publicized.

Surely would rather see the share price have to move from $1.00 to $1.50+ in December and early 2013 to meet the listing requirement, rather than from $.48.

The added huge advantage is that if the 10% of marginal capital development expense from equity can be delayed until say q2 2013, it's effects would be minimal, even positive, if the dual listing were known imminent, or better yet done.

[slyestjester]

"The real catalysts involve progress toward fundamentals overcoming sentiment."

It seems to me you are making an assertion rather than providing evidence for your case, i.e., you are presenting a statement of world view or how you would like things to be (the rational predominating over the irrational).

If you compare SIAF on a one year chart to RJA both are down until Dec, '11, both up in the spring, both down to June, both up in June or July. The only significant movement of SIAF that RJA does not capture structurally is the upward movement from April into May, when we know there was wild Swedish buying.

IMO, irrational forces play a much larger part in the market than you would like to believe. It is not inconceivable to me that were there not a change a sentiment and SIAF earned $2 that it could still trade at $1. Fortunately, that will not happen as a change in sentiment toward the commodity sector is occurring as we speak, which should carry SIAF higher than it would otherwise go (given the China stigma) on its own particular merits alone.