"The real catalysts involve progress toward fundamentals overcoming sentiment."
It seems to me you are making an assertion rather than providing evidence for your case, i.e., you are presenting a statement of world view or how you would like things to be (the rational predominating over the irrational).
If you compare SIAF on a one year chart to RJA both are down until Dec, '11, both up in the spring, both down to June, both up in June or July. The only significant movement of SIAF that RJA does not capture structurally is the upward movement from April into May, when we know there was wild Swedish buying.
IMO, irrational forces play a much larger part in the market than you would like to believe. It is not inconceivable to me that were there not a change a sentiment and SIAF earned $2 that it could still trade at $1. Fortunately, that will not happen as a change in sentiment toward the commodity sector is occurring as we speak, which should carry SIAF higher than it would otherwise go (given the China stigma) on its own particular merits alone.
