Replies to post #142030 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

EXAS—I assume that individual tests are "1/2" independent or so but think that growth of lesions over time will counteract that issue when the tests are 3 years apart. But I have to think through the ramifications of that assumption.

The concept of cumulative sensitivity is still in play (to a lesser degree, of course) if individual test results are only “1/2 independent.” Using whatever definition of half independence you prefer and adding assumptions of your choice about, inter alia, the rate of change of undetected lesions, I think you’ll find that ColoGuard’s cumulative-sensitivity arithmetic is still compelling (and is not widely understood by investors).

I’m looking forward to your analysis.