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The Nok deal could have been structured many ways, but hindsight is always 20/20. In my opinion IDCC rushed into this deal on the belief that 3g would be a cash cow sooner than it is actually happening. They saw Nok as a big ally in the standards committeees and a real enhancement for their licensing efforts. They also believed that the Ericy matter would have been completed in 2001. You have to remember that the Markman took place in 2000 so a final trial date and completion by year end 2001 was not unreasonable for a case this old. What they did not foresee was the efforts of Mr. Greenspan to teach the exuberant investors a lesson. Can you imagine the gall of these 401k people wanting to invest a portion of their social security money privately? Well, we all know he went too far and a world wide recession ensued. The market crumbled and the capital investment ceased. Wall Street did not see it coming and our congress was asleep at the wheel. Enron got caught in the wrong shuffle and all heck broke loose. We then had a visit from the terrorists and business as usual has been a thing of the past. The one thing that analysts and Wall Street have accomplished over the years is to train the upper management of companies like Pavlov's dogs. These guys fell right into the trap of trying to hit their numbers. Some did it through trick accounting and others did it through job cuts and halting capital spending. The tricksters got caught in scandals and drove the market down further. The job slashers caused a glut in the very thing that makes the economy roll, consumer spending while still maintaining pricing power. They lost both and long term business plans went to the back of the bus slowing recovery efforts. Ericy, our big target defendant, began having serious troubles because they too were counting on 3g to occur much sooner. All of the companies that had done well in the glory years suddenly were crying poor. Ericy along with the other big boys had financed their customers and all of the above created a slow pay system around the world. Ericy now was in the survival mode and delay was their only medicine. The money hucksters ceased renewing loans for the companies around the world and they were being paid before anybody else. Ericy continued its plunge and was in no position to settle with IDCC. IDCC now finds itself needing the conclusion of Ericy yesterday and both companies are reeling because the recovery is not happening as fast they had anticipated. IDCC bulked up its engineering staff and needs cash flow now more than ever. They have 2 companies that have been successful during this bad era, but they are hiding behind an Ericy conclusion for the last 14 months of production and sales. They have 2 other companies that have carried the load for the past 14 months, but even the most optimistic posters have to wonder for how much longer. This is where we find Ericy and IDCC today as a result of the timing miscalculation. Was it foreseeable? I do not believe so. Has it effected our investments? Yes, without a doubt. Is there light at the end of the tunnel? I certainly believe so, but we must remain patient and not try to force the issue. Rumors that do not happen just make matters worse. We cannot make the stock perform unless management provides the guidance necessary to stimulate a renewed interest in the company. Management cannot provide guidance without concluding Ericy. We must just wait on the news and not try to create it.
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