Replies to post #20127 on Bioelectronics Corp (BIEL)

[uksausage]

well the initial announcement seemed to be major, some read it as they had got approval but actually they only had applied.

been many threads discussing likely price on approval and i hold still be cause I believe there will be a 10 fold jump on the open you would miss if you sold out and had money on the side line waiting.

Given the dilution that has occurred over the last year or so I think 20c is a realistic high except that there could be short supply once it goes over 12c (lots will sell when they are break even). Buy out though could be as high as 50c.

[ghost42]

The .12 in 2009 reflected the momo that had been building over the summer and into the fall. At first were the JN pump pr's and then came the Sept. FDA meeting date. Where many people thought approval might come. During this time the buyers kept coming and drove the price to just before the Sept meeting when we reached the .10. After the Sept meeting with no approval, there was a Dec date where they thought they might get approval also. While there were sellers in Nov 2009, the bulk did not happen until Dec and into the first quarter of 2010. Downhill since then.
To reach .12 again will take another confluence of events. First, and in my mind most important if FDA continues to linger is dynamic sales in places they are approved for OTC sales. If BIEL can ramp up and show qtr over qtr a doubling of sales then they will have momo going into an FDA approval which might push the pps back into the .10 to .12 range or a market cap of around 300 mil. I further believe that the market cap for a buyer of BIEL would be around 330 mil or around .13 to .14. Could a potential bid war start it could go to .20 but I see no scenario where it goes higher. But without provable sales, an FDA approval tomorrow let's say, I do not think the pps brings us to only about .06. I know the consensus on her is FDA or bust, but this to me will be the classice quad play and the big money will be made after FDA approval as long as sales do what I think they can do.
Also keep in mind that when Andy supposedly turned down overtures of from .20 to .30 cents that the A/S was only around 1.5 bil shares if my memory serves me correctly.