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midtieroil

02/28/12 10:35 AM

#254273 RE: mz157 #254272

Exactly. That is why companies go out and get NSAI reports. They are an independent third party who has no reason to hype what their findings show so it covers a company's butt.

But what some STILL do not seem to understand is that many of the numbers reported are unrisked AND they are resource ESTIMATES not reserves. In order for unrisked resource estimates to be accurate every single well drilled would have to be commercial. Every single one of them. That is why risked resoucre estimates should always be used instead. They take into account the high probability that some wells won't be commercial.

And then on top of that these are resource ESTIMATES. Only drilling can really uncover the amount of oil in the ground. So many people just misinterpret NSAI numbers. Whenever anyone asks how the NSAI numbers were so wrong, I would respond how can people read into the numbers things which the NSAI reports do not say. 15 billion in unrisked resource numbers became 15 billion in reserves. When in acutality the risked numbers were probably more like 3 or 4 billion. I am still hoping we can get to that number. That was the most likely outcome when drilling started and I hope it still is.
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tryoty

02/28/12 10:45 AM

#254274 RE: mz157 #254272

You missed the end of what I said. I make no claim there was a billion barrels in these 5 wells. They clearly were a bust from an oil perpective. That does NOT mean that traces of oil weren't found identifying a migration pathway. That can point to the oil in future drills.