Replies to post #15082 on Tasty Booshers

[itrytowin]

Yep Hawk. That pretty much sums up my take on things as well.


Cynical pair, aren't we?

[Estimated_Prophet]

hawk~these things scare me too. I think it's time to start hoarding a little more cash. I don't see a reason to freak on the charts yet. I too am looking into defense issues, gold, and oil. I was going to buy MRKL yesterday at .133, DOH!

I realize I have a good possibility of being wrong, but I don't think the terrorist will be able to pull anything off the magnitude of 9/11. I know there is the dirty bomb theory, and that seems plausible, but I just don't want to think about that. you can't invest/trade with that sort of thing in mind.

Also, the powers at be, will do all they can to make the market recover after such an event. They won't want to show that a terrorist event can crash the market. They rallied the market out of 9/11 dip, IMO, for that very reason. I think they would do the same thing again. It would be hard not to panic in the moement, but it should be saved. Terrorist aren't going to stop this world from moving, so it shouldn't disrupt these little companies we trade too much.

Regardless, I'm bullish on gold, and having some of that in your portfolio could help smooth any rough spots over.

If you look at volatility, VIX, it shows the market very complacent. Not a good thing, and I see people voicing the same concerns as you hawk more lately. I am having them too. We are entering some of the worst months for the market.

[Closer2theChart]

Hawkeye, re: economy

I mostly agree with your assessment as realistic, not pessimistic or cynical. My thoughts, point by point:

1) Not entirely true, as long as #4 continues.
2) Somewhat true, although I don't believe oil (for one), is at record highs in real dollar terms.
3) This is an ongoing problem... one reason I stopped being a Republican (now independent) is that they are great at preaching small government, states' rights, and isolationism, until they actually have control of the branches of government. War does not help the real economy in the long term (see Hazlitt, von Mises, etc.).
4) This is the big problem. I strongly recommend "Conquer the Crash" by Robert Prechter, which deals with the implications of the bursting of the credit bubble.
5) I don't know how this can (and should it?) be prevented, but perhaps a falling dollar and higher energy prices will help. I don't believe this is a major problem (on a macro level).
6) 9/11 may have much to do with finances, but not in the way it is commonly portrayed. Prechter would say that wars, terrorism, etc. are evidence of the bear market, not the cause.

I see 3 & 4 as the most important of the six issues you listed.

[mackenzian]

Greeneyedhawk...
wow, very valid points. you are not alone in your considerations. One place that will hold strongly is energy...traditional and alternative...IMO. Oil and gas stocks have thrived in this price escalation and I would expect that to continue...cyberbub...got anything to say here. Coal is still a powerful commodity and holds the local (USA) edge for availability and of course that dreaded uranium user nucuelar (nuclear in non-Bush speak)power. Large stationery fuel cell generators are coming on line now...Avista is a play there and the holy grail of solar photovoltaic cell pricing is getting closer. Energy needs are not going away and, I think, will drive the world dynamic in the foreseeable future. Just one small thot on your excellent post.
mackenzian