Tasty Booshers

[Closer2theChart]

Hawkeye, re: economy

I mostly agree with your assessment as realistic, not pessimistic or cynical. My thoughts, point by point:

1) Not entirely true, as long as #4 continues.
2) Somewhat true, although I don't believe oil (for one), is at record highs in real dollar terms.
3) This is an ongoing problem... one reason I stopped being a Republican (now independent) is that they are great at preaching small government, states' rights, and isolationism, until they actually have control of the branches of government. War does not help the real economy in the long term (see Hazlitt, von Mises, etc.).
4) This is the big problem. I strongly recommend "Conquer the Crash" by Robert Prechter, which deals with the implications of the bursting of the credit bubble.
5) I don't know how this can (and should it?) be prevented, but perhaps a falling dollar and higher energy prices will help. I don't believe this is a major problem (on a macro level).
6) 9/11 may have much to do with finances, but not in the way it is commonly portrayed. Prechter would say that wars, terrorism, etc. are evidence of the bear market, not the cause.

I see 3 & 4 as the most important of the six issues you listed.