Replies to post #6458 on InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[JimLur]

To All - Data ran a nice survey on the Qualcomm board so I willfully copied it over here and probably will get sued for infringement unless Loop can find a Loophole for me.

Take a look.

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board_surveymenu.asp?board_id=916

[Bill Dalglish]

GAB IDCC's risk to reward ratio is excellent

My post you referred to finished with a quote from desert dweller, not my own words. I judged he was using hyperbole in his reference to IDCC being a "huge risk." I would not characterize IDCC as a huge risk. But risk is really a useful factor only when compared to potential reward, IMO.

The risk, as I see it, is that IDCC could drop 50% from here if Company went to trial and lost everything. Then the IDCC share price would be based on its 3G royalty potential - which is fine beginning in 2004, but not yet. The price would recover, I am confident, but would take a short term hit.

On the other hand, the potential for reward is a mind boggling. With a setlement or a trial "win" the share price could, at a minimum, quickly increase 200%. A 300% or 400% increase is possible under some scenarios.

The odds of a settlement or trial victory within 5 months are, I believe, at least 80%.

Thus I sense there is a 20% chance of a short term loss of up to 50% and an 80% chance of a reward of 200% or more.

I've never seen this positve a risk to reward ratio in my 20 years as a certified financial planner.

Of course, these estimates are exactly that - my personal estimates based on public information currently available.

Bill