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dmlabuda

02/18/12 10:47 AM

#11910 RE: izler #11890

I would have been more accurate if I called it a bounce rather than a rally. If there were any short sellers (and there probably were) once they see that the price is no longer going lower, they cover their shorts and that buying causes a rise in price and usually attracts traders who specialize in finding gaps to trade and encourages naive bulls who assume this is the next big move up. Anything can happen because there are always those fundamental factors that you don't really have knowledge of that can garner renewed interest in the stock but, at this point, I would assume any rally will at some point be responded to with additional short selling and the price will drop back down again. But, that is all conjecture at this point. I won't know any of that for certain until the chart points it out at the top of the rally wherever that may be. It could be at the gap or higher or even lower than the gap. If I were trading this stock (I'm not) I would buy here and see how much I could get out if it before the rally started looking top heave. On occasion that turns out to be soon after I buy. I don't expect much of a rally here. But, I've been surprised by the strength of a rally before. The stock is in a DOWNTREND and the price of a stock tends to follow the laws of physics that says a body in motion tends to remain in motion until acted upon by an outside force. That force, in terms of the stock market amounts to aggressive buying supported by increased volume. In the absence of high volume here, I would expect the price to find resistance at the 50 day and 84 day moving averages and also that Gap. It's already staying below the 50 day MA so, because of the Gap, a spike up to the gap is possible and on the 15-Minute chart it looks very probable to me. The 84 day moving average is along way off and the recent turnaround came prior to 84 day MA resistance so, I do not believe the price will attempt to rally back there again. The logical thing to happen now would be for support at the trendline (see chart below) to be tested and if that fails and it most likely will, then there should be support in the $0.54 to $0.56 area and if that fails, a retest of the previous low support below $0.40 should take place. AT some point, when the price is seen as the true value foe this stock, firm support will settle in and the price will continue to rise again. Fundamentally, that might mean the announcement of a new product to provide the prospects for future sales growth.

BPAX - Daily Candlesticks